SOS From Strickland, Send Money

Desolate, cold and inhospitable conditions were the backdrop for the day the Governor was to explain how Ohio is going to dig out of it's long winter of discontent.

Ted Strickland laid out his administration's plans for the next year and beyond at today's State of the State address. The speech started by tempering the policy agenda that followed with a reality check of the current economic conditions in Ohio. Lots of bad news on that front, increasing unemployment, foreclosures and the overall infirmity of the financial markets, but that was no surprise.

The State of our State, Strickland announced (after all that bad mojo) is "steadfast". Now that word steadfast really means, not subject to change or immovable. Maybe the State itself won't move away from Lake Erie but the conditions here better change or we're in trouble. Sometimes it's better to stick with the staples like "strong" or "resolute". What followed was a sometimes detailed set of proposals for improving Ohio's future through increased investment in infrastructure, technology and of course education whilst preserving the fiscal order of the State's shaky finances.

Balanced Budget In Three Easy Steps.

Stickland's budget office has estimated that a staggering $7.4 billion dollar budget deficit will have to be erased in the next biennial budget process. Achieving that level of savings (or revenue) will be a challenge. Something tells me this next biennial budget process won't end upor being passed by unanimous votes in the General Assembly like the last one did.

The Governor quickly let loose a three pronged assualt that will address the looming $7 billion plus problem. The next budget will achieve expenditure reductions of $3.2 billion, add new Federal Stimulus revenue of $3.4 billion dollars and additional revenue from fees ($800 million) filling the rest of the gap.

Ted of course steered clear of the third rail of Ohio politics, tax reform. He emphasized his intent to leave the misguided tax reforms of 2005 alone citing the savings realized by Ohioans, natch. Those changes to the tax structure have attributed to the cratering of State tax revenue and complicated the budget picture. Not including reforms as part of his agenda is a testament to the perceived political cost outweighing any good that would come from some practical changes to State taxes.

Investment Here and There

The plan to create film industry tax credit is still alive. Strickland vetoed the first attempt to create a transferable tax credit for the film industry. Now that he has some breathing room some of the details could be altered to make the credits more revenue neutral. I think Tom Patton is already working on a reworked version of the film industry tax credit bill. Shouldn't be too long before the production crew of the thriller Torso starts setting up in Cleveland.

Some of the other investment proposals were off the shelf recycled ideas that actually have merit. The proposal to run light rail between the three major C's in Ohio is way overdue. That is something I for one would love to see happen. There will be resistance from the local governments that don't want passenger trains running through their slice of heaven, but the greater good should prevail here. There is of course that small detail of paying for the whole thing. Did someone say gasoline tax? I did.

No policy speech would be complete without the obligatory show of support for the Third Frontier project. The plan has had bipartisan support in the Assembly and from the voting public. It is an attempt to channel $1.6 billion of funding to a wide array economic development research and technology related projects to the benefit of Ohio's citizenry and business community. The Buckeye Institute has labeled the programs of this type as pork laden waste but, if individual States can't funnel money to local projects of this sort who will?

Education Reform - The Meat of the Speech

The remainder of the address was dedicated to reforming education in Ohio. The Governor unveiled a multi-part plan called Evidence Based Education. Ted has journeyed all over Ohio like Carradine in Kung Fu and gotten ideas about what the education system needs. His answer is this evidenced based approach that was unveiled today.

The plan calls for a five part approach to reforming and preparing Ohio's schools for global competitiveness in the 21st century. The five parts include; teaching for the 21st century, expanding learning approaches, improving educator quality, a focus on measuring success and new standards for school districts themselves.

To be honest the proposals were expansive and I think covered a lot of ground for a State of the State speech. I watched this portion of the speech with my wife and the proposals elicited a number of comments from both of us. Pausing live television is a very useful tool.

I'll attempt to flesh out some of the details in a subsequent post because I'm still ruminating on the plan. I'd have to say that Pho was right on target with his predictions on what Strickland would propose today.

The Governor's GOP adversaries of course see things differently. There were criticisms about the details and of course questions about how the education plan will be funded. On that note I concur. The de facto sixth part of the Governor's plan was the funding changes he is seeking to make evidence based education a reality. The proposed changes are going to be significant in terms of cost. What was billed as Strickland's big speech to reform school funding was light on details. I'm not trying to take away from the innovations he is proposing but there was no paradigm shifting change introduced in Strickland's plan.

Aside from letting levy millage adjust with inflation (H.B. 920) and increasing the State's share of funding to districts (up to 59%) the reforms I and Dennis Willard expected to hear didn't materialize. No talk of consolidating districts or even creating district per County. No mention of trying to introduce an additional sales tax as a way of funding schools either. The proposals for reforming education were there but the means to pay for for these changes were meager in their current form.

Full text available here.

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My Little Piece of Inaugural Paradise

Warning, this post is back dated I didn't have a chance to post until the next day.

Going to Washington to see the inauguration seemed like a great idea on November 5th of 2008. Fast forward to January of 2009 and watching the the thing go down on the television was the more sensible thing to do. Trapped at work in C-Town meant booking to the Palace Theater to catch a bit of history was the only decent option.

The set up at the Palace Theater was great, no lines and a fairly large screen to watch the inaugural coverage in HD. The crowd was a mixture of office dwellers, students and families. I got a kick out of reactions to the various dignitaries being introduced as they entered the seating area behind the dais. Cheers for President Carter, Big Dog and some snickering for the purple scarfed adorned Bush clan. The elder Bush seems to have aged considerably in the last few years.

In between observing the crowd at the Palace and checking the time I picked up some finer points of the scene unfolding on that colorful stage at the Capital. Silly David Brooks, he thinks Obama's brother-in-law was wearing a Princeton scarf. No David, his employer, Oregon State would take issue with that assumption (Paradise Drive, indeed). Who's foot was floating behind Senator Feinstein while she was speaking at the podium? Who let Newt in the good seats? Let's face it Cheney was trying to look like FDR in that wheelchair get up. I hear the chair runs on sneer power.

As the time for Obama to take the oath approached I checked my watch. The musical interlude right before the presidential oath was fantastic. I'll second the many observations that the quartet on stage represented a great slice of what America really looks like. It was a few minutes past noon when Barack Obama and Chief Justice Roberts faced each other to recite the oath of office. What followed was a puzzling and somewhat disturbing occurrence. How does the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court not get that oath right? The irony of a strict constructionist flubbing a passage that is directly quoted in the Constitution was not missed by Andrew Sullivan. What was even more intriguing was how Obama caught the screw up and gave Chief Justice Roberts a chance to correct himself.

The speech was somber and mechanical in nature but was complementary of his election night speech. I have to admit I was still kind of annoyed by the Oath debacle when I heard the speech live. I have found that more meaning is revealed after hearing it a second time. The ground has shifted beneath them, building not destroying and new ways forward are some of the themes that continue to echo in my mind today.

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Home Rule On Trial

Tomorrow Ohio's cities get to make a case for preserving their ability to craft policy at the local level.  The SCO will hear arguments from the cities of Akron, Lima and Cleveland on whether a State law prohibiting municipal residency requirements should be overturned.  Cleveland was allowed to join in after flubbing the filing.  The court consisting of seven Repubicans will hear arguments from two seperate cases revolving around the residency issue. 

While residency rules for city employees is at the center of the court arguements the real threat is whether or not the court will allow further erosion of the home rule provision of the state consitution.  It's no secret that there's some animosity towards or at least a lack of concern for granting localities the discretion to forge policy as they deem necessary.  The negative vibe is worse for any cities named Cleveland or Akron. 

There's no telling what the court will decide, uphold the lower court ruling striking down the state law (good) or overturn the lower court ruling (bad).  The future of how cities govern themselves is in the balance.  There's no indication on how long the court will take to render an opinion but a few points should be kept in mind.

The State law was crammed through the General Assembly cheifly as a result of one State Senator, Tim ' got his hands in everyhting' Grendell who was considering a run for Attorney General in 2006.  Why not solidfy a large voting block from the F.O.P. and the Firefighter Unions by granting them something from their perenial wish list?  Long story short, Grendell didn't run AG but the law was passed anyway.  Another example of former township trustees dictating what is good and bad for cities.

The police and fire organizations hate residency requirements and that passion has kept the anti-residency law movement alive.  I've found that most big cities myaors have a somewhat adverserial relationship with their safety forces.  Fighting residency laws is a great way to stick it to the admnstration if there is a contentious relationship to begin with.  The public safety employees can always find supporters in Columbus.   Lawmakers are willing to take up the cause even after cities like Akron have had residency requirements approved by voters more than once.  So much for the citizens having a say.

The impact of upholdng the State law will have a corrosive effect on urban neighborhoods.  Scores of police and fire personnel (aside from those already skirting the residency law) will move out of their repsective cities.  Losing the residency requirement would probably have a greater impact on a City like Cleveland that has more to lose through the exodus of resident police, fire and EMS employees.  

The other downside is the long-term detriment to the concept of community policing.  The mission to serve and protect is weakend when the very men and women who are asked to patrol our streets have no vested interest in the community other than earning a paycheck.  As a resident of one of the cites represented I strongly believe that the safety forces are not hired mercenaries but an important piece of the community at large. 

I understand that police and fire place themsleves at great risk to keep us safe and that service is probably the most important one provided by cities.  As a residents and taxpayers we have a stake in the way those services are provided and the way in which our elected leaders govern our localities.  Funny how no one is ever concerned if the accountants or garbagemen are happy with residency requirements.

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Obama The Ox

According to the Chinese zodiac 2009 is the year of the ox.  Barack Obama, the man taking the oath of office in one days time is an ox by birth year.  If you believe in these typeologies then we have elected the right person for the right time in our nation's history:

The Ox is the sign of prosperity through fortitude and hard work. This powerful sign is a born leader, being quite dependable and possessing an innate ability to achieve great things. As one might guess, such people are dependable, calm, and modest. Like their animal namesake, the Ox is unswervingly patient, tireless in their work, and capable of enduring any amount of hardship without complaint.

I hope he lives up to the prescribed attributes of this year's animal, especially the part about work and enduring hardship. His predecessor ran out of steam before the first one hundred days were up.

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Less Triangulating More Ass Kicking

Thomas Frank posits that a President Obama would benefit from not taking up the Clintonian banner of the third way for every major policy initiative.

I agree with Thomas' idea that triangulation or taking cover for the political center in some respects betrays progressive tenets. The attempt to not appear partisan has brought us the some dubious results during the Bush years:

Well, there's Nafta, which proved Democrats could stand up to labor. There's the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. There's the Iraq war resolution, approved by numerous Democrats in brave defiance of their party's left. Triumphs all.

We're just asking for some recognition now that the conditions on the ground have changed. The belief in health care reform, regulation of financial markets and looking for accountability shouldn't be sacrificed because Obama wants to transcend political boundaries.

Take the planned economic stimulus package to be debated in the coming weeks. I don't give a rat's ass if Obama thinks he needs 80 vote to add legitimacy to the Democratic plan. The over reliance on tax cuts in the plan will weaken its effect and all to make sure ten more Republican Senators vote yes. From what I've read sixty is still the necessary number of votes to get something done in the Senate.

One more thing. I'm not confusing reaching out with triangulating. Tapping Republicans to hold cabinet posts, dining with George Will and asking evangelical nutcases to speak on inauguration day is fine. Reaching out is about getting players to come over to your side of the policy fence not moving the goal post to the right. Reaching out could actually widen the appeal of true progressive ideals in the long term. 

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BofA, WTF

It looks like another bank consolidation will be using federal juice to get the deal done. The WSJ reports today that Bank of America will be tapping the TARP to complete it's acquisition of investment house Merrill Lynch. Think of it as affirmative action for creative destruction. Not exactly what Joseph Schumpeter had in mind when he was developing the concept of corporate evolution through the natural uninhibited cycles of free market ebb and flow. The TARP, pitched as the only means to keep the credit markets from freezing up for good, has become the grease lubricating a new round of bank consolidations.

There are no letters in the acronym TARP that describe the unexpected outcome of the federal bailout to banks. Citi has benefited greatly from the largess and PNC used the TARP to buy our beloved NatCity. Compare and contrast these events with the struggle to get a loan package approved for the U.S. automakers. Paulson et al insisted the remaining TARP funds were committed for an undisclosed use and would not be available to loan to the automakers. Now that the story is out is appears to this observer of recent history that the BofA Merrill deal was given priority over the Big Three loan. That puny $17.4 billion loan package begrudgingly handed over to the Big Three was dwarfed in by the crazy billions being thrown at BofA and Citi alone.

This latest episode is one more example of the Treasury Department's tilt towards helping Hank's comrades in the financial sector. As an example take a look at this piece from The Big Picture comparing the terms the Treasury gave to Goldman in comparison to what super-investor Warren Buffet was able to demand for a stake in the firm. Clearly the Treasury program was designed to provide money without much in return from the banks.

A massive reorganization of the big players in banking was always in cards when you consider the people involved, I guess it shouldn't be a surprise. Congress, taxpayers and the losers who got the short end of the deals (Nat City) shouldn't be surprised at the outcome of TARP I. The next chapter, TARPII will be getting under way soon. Maybe the next round will have more accountability and less emphasis on creative destruction.

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State's Next Budget Is Shovel Ready

It's no secret that the next State budget is going to test Ted Strickland's ability to lead during a fiscal crisis. The current budget has already been trimmed back by over $1.2 billion in the past six months. A real overhaul of the 2010 SFY budget (effective 7/1/2009) is going to be required in order to eradicate a monster $7 billion projected deficit.

Digging out of this mess is not going to be easy. How unassailable is that $7 billion chasm? Even employing theoretical 25% cuts across the board would only yield $4.7 billion of savings according to the State budget office. The impact of reductions that deep would be felt by all Ohioans.

Unlike the federal government the States can't print money or deficit spend to get by in tough times. The budget must be in balance when all is said and done and the Governor will have to bring the State's fiscal house in order one way or the other. To keep it in simple budgeting terms, one way is to cut stuff and the other way is to increase revenue. With this two part approach in mind here are three bits of advice for the Ted to consider whilst navigating this seemingly impossible challenge that lays ahead.

Steady Teddy
There are some tough choices ahead for the Gov. Cutting popular programs and laying off State employees are just some of the decisions that await him. Ted doesn't need me extolling the virtues of showing political courage in the face of uncertainty to make the right choices. Shed the ministerial nicety and get tough.

He exhibited some spine this week by vetoing three bills passed in the lame duck session at the end of 2008. The veto included popular but unaffordable items including the veterans bonuses and the film industry tax credits. These things would be nice in good times but there's a budget crisis in the works. The other item was the shady election "reforms" that had no business being brought up in the final session on a last minute basis. A no brainer for the veto pens wrath but still a good commendable move.

A Little Help From The Feds
Help is on the way in the form of sizable Federal stimulus package to the States. Strickland has been on point not just for Ohio but for all of the States facing budgetary melt downs. In an interview on C-SPAN he made the case for a large injection of Federal money to States for infrastructure projects and education programs to help ease the strain on State budgets. Keeping the push for aid to the States front and center will yield benefits. Ohioans need to understand how their interests will be served and The Gov' will come across as a key leader on getting the thing done the right way.


The Tax Reality
There is no way around it some taxes and fees will have to be increased. That would seem to be political suicide for a guy that will be running for re-election or for Senate in 2010. Too bad dude, the budget has to be balanced and there is no way that's happening with budget cuts alone.

He could start by entertaining a restoration of income tax rates to a more responsible level for the higher income brackets. That would make sense. The minions on the right will surely pounce on this move. Ohioans will have to be reminded that it was the failed tax polices of the GOP lead General Assembly that are partly responsible for the revenue shortfalls crippling State finances. Let John Kasich explain how completely phasing out the income tax is a sensible way forward.

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PNatCity

Game Over. The purchase of Cleveland banking staple National City Corp. by PNC was approved by shareholders today. The NCB name will eventually go the way of Euclid Beach Park, Sohio and Cleveland Trust but, we're use to this type of thing by now.

PNC's purchase of Nat City was made possible by the largess of the Treasury TARP program. This has called into question the motive behind allowing the acquisition to go through considering that Nat City was denied TARP funds resulting in the PNC takeover.

As much as the circumstances around PNC's purchase have rankled local members of Congress the short lived Save NCB Movement was no match for the forces of creative destruction. I am of course being cynical about the creative destruction part. The TARP and the resulting thumbs up and thumbs down are government sponsored financial engineering at its finest. So much for an invisible hand on the tiller.

Regardless of the way NCB was getting the shaft in this deal there are two inescapable facts that should be considered. One, NatCity was for sale with or without the government backed infusion that pushed PNC over the edge. The private equity investment NCB received in May was not enough to prevent a future sale. I've had people from NCB tell me as much. Two, the sorry condition of Nat City is the direct result of the bank's management team betting that the subprime cash conveyor belt would never shut down. It did and now the local banking landscape is a changin'.

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A Fitting Send Off From The Iraqis

It took a shoe lobbing journalist to remind us what a failure the Iraq "war" has been.

Of course there are other ways of showing one's disdain for turning a country of 25 million into a failed free market laboratory. Nothing says it quite like a pair of size ten loafers hurtling toward your head.

The Las Vegas Browns

Each year around this time we have to ask ourselves the question, does Northeast Ohio really need an NFL team?

Come on man you know it's true. This return of the Cleveland Browns thing that started in 1999 is a failed experiment. The team has been burning through coaches, quarterbacks, money and respect at an unsustainable rate. There's no end in sight to this misery and bringing in another coach won't make a difference. Bill Cowher left the league on top of his game. Why would he want risk his legacy by coming this "coaching graveyard", the Diamond Shoals of the AFC North?

Our massive investment in public dollars and human capital has not yielded a return on investment worthy of continuing the tradition of Cleveland football. It doesn't take Roldo writing the same article thirty-seven times to get that point across. There must be some large metro area drooling over the prospect of having an NFL team. They can have ours if the price is right. The agreement between the City and the Browns would have to be changed and the outstanding debt on the stadium would have to be retired.

It will not be easy letting go but the decision will give us all a clean break and the gift of starting over. There will be no team here but the Cleveland Browns diaspora has always been robust in all parts of the country so it doesn't really matter where they end up. What we'll be left with is the world's largest Browns Backers Club.

Maybe we can lure the Columbus Crew to our city. We'll have a natural turf stadium available.

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Ohio's Election Disconnect

The 2008 election is in the history books but Ohio's election troubles are not. Let's just say it's a blessing in more than one way that the presidential race was not close.

Dennis Willard calls out the politically motivated Ohio Supreme Court as well as the Republican leadership in the General Assembly. He aptly labels the never partisan interference as Ohio's insane season (worse than silly season)and offers a blunt remedy:

Then, everyone involved should put down their crayons and read Election Law for Dummies before attempting to fix the many flaws in Ohio's election law.

Step 1: Set aside vanity mirror and remove such silly technicalities as you must sign and print your name or your provisional ballot doesn't count.

Finally, for once in your political careers, heed your own rhetoric and place the needs of the voter and citizenry first.

What I can't figure out is why GOP legislators and jurists turn a blind eye to the fact that election insanity hurts voters of all political stripes. None of this critique even factors in the buffoonery on display by the Ohio Republican Party (Bennett, et al) every election cycle.

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Cleveland's Doppler Cartel

My childhood hero Dick "wooly bear man" Goddard, friend to all dogs and cats, is in the global warming denier camp. So says an extenisve expose into Cleveland's television weather guys that was given front page space in Wednesday's Plain Dealer. The list goes on to other well know purveyors of the Doppler such as Mark Johnson, Andre Bernier, John Loufman and Mark Nolan, (no longer doing weather). Oddly enough I didn't see any women on the list.

The concept of the story is actually kind of humorous. At first it would seem that this position would contradict the duties that local meteorologists fulfill on a daily basis. If you take a step back and consider that there is one glaring fact that exempts the Doppler cartel from being rational about global warming, they are not scientists. Sure each of the weathermen carries a seal form the AMS but, aren't they really giving a glorified weather Power Point presentation every night?

What would be really interesting is to see what the correlation is between the views of members of the weather underground that aligns their views on global warming. Such an investigation woudl be fodder for the guys at Freakonomics. There are a variety of explanations for their skepticism given, from complete denial the earth is indeed heating up to the thesis presented in Michael Crichton's book State of Fear.

Bernier said local meteorologists "are just more practical" and not swayed by the opportunity for more grant money to do more research proving climate change.

Using Crichton's work to refute global warming is common among a certain persuasion of political minds. The only problem is that Crichton was not a scientist. Scientists submit their work to peer review which Crichton did not do. This article gives the impression that the large sample of weather broadcasters in Cleveland and across the country are in the same camp ideological camp. Their focus on presenting the very short term outlook of weather as opposed to long term climate has apparently swayed their opinions, almost like a badge of honor. Next up, does too much time in front of a chromokey impact human logic?

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Feel Free To Panic

"You better get on your knees and pray,
panic is on the way"
- Oasis

It's official, we are in a recession. So says the NBER, the organization that is assigned the noble duty of charting the boom and busts of the U.S. economy.

I'm only playing up to the hype that permeates the media and internets, there's no reason to panic yet. We just went through one of these recessionary periods seven years ago, no big deal. Anyway, economists say that recessions happen on the margins so most of you may end up doing fine. There is plenty of reporting on how the economic downturn is impacting our lives and fleshing out just where those margins are. A small sample of what I've found interesting over the last twenty-four hours.

It's Raining Bad News in Columbus
A follow up to my earlier post on the extreme duress being placed on State finances by lagging tax collections. Articles on GONGWER and the Plain Dealer add more information about the precarious position the Strickland administration is in. They are looking at another round of cuts followed by a new budget process that will require seismic changes in program spending to stay afloat. Ted can't even think about having the General Assembly freeze the final phase on cuts to the income tax lest he be branded "tax hike Ted". That ambitious plan to reform school funding is becoming more of a challenge every day.

Credit Market Bummer
Ignore the stock market for now and pain it is inflicting on your 401k. Market volatility is up so the wild swings in market value are becoming common place. The Volatility Index (VIX) has been averaging 40 as compared to the once normal 20. The real problem has been with the more pertinent credit markets. The untouchable ether where all financial activity comes to being.

Calculated Risk has continued to follow several key indicators and the news in the past few days is disconcerting. Credit markets are still exhibiting troubling signs including what CR called a "stunning flight" to Treasuries on Monday. This trend combined with other bad news (TED Spread up), indicates the problems that were caused by the collapse of the financial system have not gone away.

Portable Alpha, Sinkable Pension
The WSJ had a very interesting but short article on the plight of the Pennsylvania State Pension Fund. It looks like that fund and some others are taking huge losses from market downturns. Now, one would expect a pension fund to see a decrease in earnings and value considering the current market conditions. Unfortunately the managers at the PA pension fund had been imbibing the same elixir that other financial risk takers were drunk on. Using a hedging strategy called portable alpha the pension fund managers asserted they could beat the market and never pay the price for excessive risk taking. That decision hasn't worked out to well, they've lost billions in the last quarter alone.

The scope of problems and extreme difficulty the current financial crisis has created for public finance is impressive. There will most likely be more stories such as this one in the coming months.

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State Tax Reform Comes Home to Roost

As the economy continue to soften in Ohio the State is expecting to see alarming decreases in tax revenue. This comes as no surprise to observers of the State budget and local governments in general. What goes on at the State level may seem distant but it will have an effect on local governments. The State is getting ready to make deeper cuts in early 2009 and the pain will certainly trickle down to the county and municipal levels.

Reporting in last week's Columbus Dispatch highlighted the budget-sinking drop of revenue into the State's coffers. Tax revenue decreasing from one year to the next had only happened once in fifty years until 2006. They are now expecting to see a consecutive yearly drop three years running. The State will again have to make budget cuts to current the biennial budget in order to avoid depleting its cash reserves. This move does not include the massive reductions in spending that will have to be made once the new budget process starts in spring of next year.

The recessionary trends in Ohio's economy have definitely contributed to the downturn in tax revenue. Blame must also be assigned to the large scale reduction (21%) in the state income tax passed in 2005. While revamping of Ohio's aged property and corporate tax structure was needed, the cuts to the income tax rates have proven to be reckless. Bill Harris was quoted in the Dispatch article supporting the belief that the income tax cuts have ameliorated the negative impacts of the the sour economy.

Too bad history is not on the Senate president's side. As mentioned above the State had not seen consecutive drops in tax revenue in fifty years, until 2006. Hmm, 2006 would have been the first year the tax rate cuts and other "reforms" went into effect. Funny how dropping tax rates doesn't result in an increase in tax collections as claimed by the reformers. Surely in that fifty year time frame there were at least five or six recessionary periods. Even with the downturns over that half century, tax collections under the old tax regime had not resulted in a year over year decrease in collections.

At this point the administration doesn't have many options in the way of revenue enhancements. The window to freeze the fifth and final phase-in of the income tax reduction has passed. Governor Strickland has mentioned repeatedly that he will not touch the third rail of Ohio politics and consider raising any taxes, whatsoever. The State will be limited to two other options to bring the budget in line with current resources; cutting programs or creative financing. Reducing program spending includes cutting staff and cutting assistance to local governments such as counties, cities and schools. The Local Government Fund which is fed from State general revenue could be looking at once unthinkable levels of reduction. This step alone will have a serious impact on the mission critical programs of the locals.

The creative financing route entails tapping the rainy day fund or securitizing assets. The administration has been ambivalent about spending down the cash reserves in the rainy day fund. That option would only work in the short term as the burn rate for that cash would be very fast. The State already converted a larget asset, the tobacco settlement fund, into cash last year. Other than that fund there aren't many big time assets laying around to be converted into cash. Free money doesn't present itsle that often. The short of it is that cutting programs is the only tenable option for achieving the bulk of the savings needed.

The revenue from tax collections ebbs and flows with the cyclical economic patterns of boom and bust, nothing new. Reforming the tax system was not a bad idea but the shortsighted way that reform was implemented has put the State in an downward spiraling bind that will have far reaching impacts. The peril of H.B. 66 is that it accomplished political objectives than actually placing Ohio's finances on a path of long term stability.

At this rate that new "tax reform" proposal floating around the halls of the Buckeye Institute may be ready for the dustbin of history.

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PBD, We Hardly Knew Ye

Sorry to see the lights turned out at the Stable. Redhorse has been one of my favorite local bloggers and I made it a point to keep up with the political and other musings provided at the "Billy". I appreciate many of the views expressed on those pages with the exception of your affinity for Blue Dogs.

Anyhow, thanks for including us on your local blogroll for the past year and maybe we'll see you on the internets again.

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The Citi Slide

A sliding stock price, thousands of layoffs and dire predictions from the financial press bring the troubles of the U.S. automakers to mind.

I'd almost forgotten about the tail spin the banking sector has been in. While the fate of the Big Three was debated on Capital Hill this week the wheels were falling off the banking giant Citigroup. We thought the TARP program had provided some stability to the reeling financial markets but there are more rumblings of looming problems, especially at Citi. Today's peice in the NYT recounts the all too familiar hubris laden journey of the firm over the past five years.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Citi. Will they be sold or merge with another Wall Street titan? Better yet, will the Treasury Department decide that Citi is too big to fail? Maybe it's true when they say the first $25 billion is the hardest to come by. Brad DeLong has an interesting yet cynical outlook on what to do with Citi:

Yep. Time to do it. Swedish model. No more of this "preferred stock capital injection" business. Common stock. And with commitment comes control.

If it comes to that then surely a loan to the U.S. automakers is in order.

Update: This story is running on Bloomberg. Looks like Citi is too big to fail.

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Big Three Battlegrounds

Why can't we all just get along? The prospect of of having to intervene in another sector of the economy, the auto industry, has created a defacto battle ground of sorts. The attention being paid to the sad state of affairs at GM, Chrysler and Ford has exposed harsh divisions along policy, ideological and societal lines. What could have been a straight forward debate about loaning money to the Big Three has become a struggle along multiple fronts. You thought the people in Washington just wanted to entertain a new bailout package but there are more layers to this onion than meets eye.

The Fight For Stability in a Crisis
The guys in charge of the automakers will tell you that their companies are fighting to stay alive and the dysfunctional state of the credit markets is making things hard. They'd love to turn to the credit markets to borrow money and replace the cash they are burning through but there's a financial crisis in full swing so that's not an option. Considering all that is being done for the financial sector a loan to save or stabilize the U.S. automakers and the thousands of jobs that are at risk doesn't seem out of bounds.

Remember that $150 billion bailout of AIG (originally set at $87 billion) was deemed necessary because of their omnipresent status in the global financial system. The Treasury coughed up $150 billion to stave off excessive counter party risk. Surely a loan to car makers to bridge the economic crisis caused by the likes of AIG is in the realm of the possible. I think it's safe to say that GM workers will not be attending retreats at exclusive resorts during the loan period. That little fit the media is throwing over the use of corporate jets really seems trivial when compared against the massages and other pampering AIG employees received whilst on government sponsored holiday.

Definitional Schism
There's a low level verbal skirmish over the definition of what government action is, a loan or a bailout. The more loathsome someone feels about the Big Three the more emphasis that is placed on the term bailout. So it may sound like BAILout when muttered on cable television. I'll stick with the more accurate title, it's a loan.

The continued seizing of the credit markets would probably make a reorganization under Chapter 11 untenable. There is a consensus developing not a myth that the bankruptcy would quickly back slide into a liquidation. Consider that auto industry jobs have a multiplier of 9 or 10. A liquidation of GM et al means the evaporation of suppliers and other related industries that are supportive to the manufacturing sector. That includes the mom and pop (sorry for the cliche) diners, barbershops, pizza places etc. that will face untimely eradication from the local economies that depend on auto laborers to pump money into there businesses.

A Tipping Point in the Ideological Struggle?
The right wing pundits, columnists, policy makers and disciples of creative destruction see the argument over "bailing out" the Big Three as a tipping point of sorts. A victory would mean shutting the automakers out of receiving any federal loans and force them into a tailspin leading to liquidation or fragmentation into smaller entities. This scenario may sound detrimental to the U.S. economy as a whole but theses guys know the survival of their ideology is at stake. They have picked this debate, not the $700 billion one, as the final showdown in eradicating the perceived cancers of the free market system they crave.

Mitt Romney, Fox News, the WSJ Opinion page, George Will and others have weighed like an angry mob from the Roman Coliseum with a collective thumbs down. They may arrive at the prognosis using a different methodology but the conclusion is the same. Let them fail and we will be stronger is a common chant from the market worshipers.

The dialectic we are witnessing is actually a full assault on the soft underbelly of the nemesis of free market acolytes. Namely the economic safety net provided by organized labor over the years. You know, luxuries like living wages, health care, pensions and safe working environments. There's blood in the water and the antagonists are waging a proxy war against one the largest remaining strongholds of organized labor. Consider this, one of the graphics run on Fox News today read, "Is this a bailout of the union!". Bailing out shameful greed on Wall Street okay, providing loans to the Big Three (union workers), bad.

If a fatal blow can be dealt to the Big Three surely they think a significant remnant of industrial labor movement could be neutralized in one stroke. Attacking organized labor vis a vis the demonization of the individual worker is one more tactic utilized by the "on your own" crowd. This type of assault on the structure of union employment had been going on before the Big Three Battle of 2008. George Will wrote a celebrated column on the decline of GM in 2006 where he referred to the health care and pensions offered to GM employees as "welfare". He penned a reprise to that column in this week's Post.

Yes, the beloved Joe Six pack that the GOP crowed about during the 2008 election busted his ass on the GM assembly line for 25 years to become a welfare recipient, he in no way earned those benefits. Funny how propping up AIG artificially with unlimited billions doesn't draw the same animus from these guys.

You would think that the crumbling of one of the pillars of free markets ideology, unregulated markets, would have discouraged the protraction of the ideological war. Of course the abysmal attempt of the past few years to embrace free market dogma has been a train wreck all together but that hasn't abated the trumpeting from the sons of Friedman.

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Advanced 'By God' Hydro Solutions

Advanced Hydro Solutions may have finally given up on the hydroelectric project (farce) at the Ohio Edison dam and moved south.  After trying in earnest to get access to the Gorge Metro Park to set up a trial hydroelectric project Advanced Hydro has announced plans to give the rivers of West Virginia a try.  I'm hoping this means they have given up on the Akron project.

The company had tried unsuccessfully to start a hydroelectric project using the First Energy owned Ohio Edison dam as a location.  A stalwart grass roots movement of citizens, park lovers, paddlers and the Summit Metro Parks were able to turn the tide (or turbine) against the company and their silent partner.  It seems most of us believed protecting the park and preventing First Energy from avoiding their dam liability was a worthy cause.  In the end it paid off.  FERC has given up on the proposed project and a court ruling has kept Advanced Hydro out of the park so that colony of monks hood plants can breath easier now.  The ultimate goal is of course getting First Energy to take on the responsibility of removing the 20th century relic.  Doing so would improve the Cuyahoga's health and free up a decent stretch of white water in the process.  Maybe Advanced will have better luck in our neighboring state, there are less people there.

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Change On the Internets

Change has come to the Internets. The Obama Biden transition project has established a web presence at Change.gov. Check it out if you dare.

***
I'm still trying to wrap my mind around what has happened this week. Reading the Wall Street Journal today I kept pausing every time I came across "President Elect Obama" in any of the articles. Today's Wall Street news section is almost exclusively dedicated to Obama stories, it's mind blowing in a way. It's almost as if we're in a parallel universe where something actually went the right way. In another parallel universe the other Fausto is facing the miserable outcome of a McCain Palin election win. Sorry dude I'm staying here.

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I've Been Staring At It All Day

Look what we did to the damn map, it's a thing of beauty. Blue is becoming the new red.



Ohio, I knew you'd come back to your senses eventually.

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Election Day in Akron 8

It's on. The most important election in a generation from Akron's ward 8.

10:15 - Game over once they called Ohio. Knocking on all those f*&#ing doors actually paid off! Everyone take five.

16:30 - just got back from canvassing. basically no one was home. The people I did manage to coax to the door had already voted, good. Before I left the staging house some of the organizers were whining about low turnout in Ohio. That made me cringe. Wouldn't we expect turnout to be lower due the 25% that cast early ballots? Pho twittered about low turnout at the polls. I''ll admit I'm nervous.

12:05 - leaving for the staging house to pick up a last day canvass pack. I hope all this knocking makes a difference. It better.

9:00 - The futility of stupid people. My idiot neighbor just set up a sign with a blown up copy of an anti Obama pamphlet on William Ayers. Talk about low rent. Even the plutocrats down the road aren't going to this extreme.

8:36 - The line at Case is gone. Voters are trickling in now. Did early voting relieve the pressure on election day?

7:40 - I'm going to get my free Starbucks coffee. Hey did you hear it's free if you voted.

6:35 - They are lined up at Case Elementary to get it done before work. Before the doors open the line runs down Harcourt and just starts to wrap around Westvale. They may have a half hour wait. Not too bad compared to four or five hours. Pix to follow.

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Some Local Races of No Real Interest

Sutton Wins By 30
Betty was already looking at a pretty sizable win over her Republican challenger Harry Potter. I don't think that's his real first name he wanted to siphon off some votes from parents of J. K. Rowling fans. Anyway I'll be waiting to see if an Obama coattail effect pushes Sutton's win margin into the stratosphere.

Randy Cole Wants In
Mr. Cole ran for Ward 8 Councilor two years ago and lost to Bob Keith. This election he picked State Representative of the 41st district as his class project. Randy lives in the neighborhood and seems to be well liked. He is challenging incumbent Brian Williams who is also well liked. I have noticed there are more Cole signs in the area. I have even seen some Cole signs paired up with Obama signs which could mean Randy's appeal cuts across party lines, good news for him.

Status Quo in Summit County
I think it's safe to say that all the incumbents holding elected County offices will keep them Some like Sheriff Drew Alexander are unopposed. Why in the hell are we forced to vote for County Engineer? Rusty Pry will have no problem defeating Jim Laria and his giant man size photo yard signs, scary.

The Kooch Hangs On
There was talk that Dennis Kucinich's latest quest for the presidency had fatally tarnished his image and the voters would send him packing. Jim Trakas has an uphill battle to unseat the Kooch even if there is some level of discontent in the 10th district. In the end enough people still love the little elf congressman plus the district is heavy Dem. In a year where there will be a down ticket effect from Obama I expect to see a victorious Dennis emerge on Wednesday. Sorry Jim.

Will PLJ Be Derailed at the Last Minute?
Cuyahoga County Commissioner Jones looked like he would sail to a win over Bay Village Mayor Deb Sutherland (call her Deb). There has been some static over PLJ's use of a County employee and car to be chauffeured to and from work and his law offices. The situation had started to fade when he was busted this Saturday by Channel 3 (or was it 8) in a county car driven by his trusty assistant. There's nothing better than a minor scandal like this to enrage voters but, I don't think Peter has to worry. From what I hear there are more PLJ yard signs in Bay Village than anywhere in the western burbs.

Say It With Me, Snitchler!
Did you know Celeste DeHoff failed to pay her property taxes? Do you even know who Celeste DeHoff is? I'm not even sure what State district this race is for and frankly I don't give a crap. The pay off is the guy running the adds has a great last name for a weaselly looking dude running negative adds. Snitchler, Snitchla. The race is actually for the 50th House district in Stark County.

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Those Aren't Memes We Can Believe In

Enough on the polling and on to some lighter material. These are my two favorite ridiculous memes that have been proliferating amongst the cable pundits and the internets. Interestingly enough they are all also favorites of Joe "Morning Joe" Scarborough.

The first really cuts to the core of how this election has come to manifest itself as a runaway Obama victory. You see according to the lore, Rick Davis was running a brilliant campaign for McCain. The whole thing went south when the crisis in the financial markets took hold of the American attention span. People were no longer able to pay attention to McCain's superior national security credentials because they were losing there ass in the stock market. You got that? The McCain campaign was doing fine until the economic crisis, I mean reality intervened. If only we could have avoided any lapses into unpleasant reality, things would be much different. Maybe the current economic crisis is just another spin on the old national security concern that has multiple facets.

Then we have the consummate favorite, Palin in 2012. This one championed by righty cable talkers that have boatloads of chutzpah and a major woody for Sarah Palin. Other than that I fail to grasp why Morning Joe, Pat Buchanan (who I like) and Bil Kristol think a Palin candidacy is either plausible or likely in 2012. Other that the folksy vernacular peppered speeches and the one liners, what else did she bring to the table? Since when is hockey mommery included in the skill set to be the commander in chief. No, I think much more has been done to illustrate why she should never enter the national political stage as a contender again. The unending lying covered in exquisite detail by Andrew Sullivan is just one reason that this cannot happen. I think people like Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal, Huckabee and others would agree with this point.

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Restless, Distant and Tense

That's the summary of how I'll feel the next two days. I can check out the poll data or Nate Silver's latest on the unlikely McCain paths to victory. Neither of these things will settle me down though. I remember some anxiety on the eve of the 2006 mid terms, mostly about the chances of a having a Governor Blackwell. With so much more on the line and having spent a good deal of time volunteering for the Obama campaign this go around is much more intense. Can you tell I'm a Type A?

Just to add to the election noise take a look at the Pollster composite of Ohio.

Doesn't look to bad for Obama does it? Now look at the national composite.













A good lead but not as comforting. I added the long over due fivethirtyeight.com widget to the sidebar. Too bad it will only be handy for two more days. Anyway this is the last push. If you are still volunteering tomorrow or Tuesday, fight the good fight and as Kos said "leave everything on the road".

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Where I'll Be Sunday Afternoon

Not in Downtown Cleveland on Malls A, B or C.  As much as I would like to be at the Obama rally this Sunday I think I will pass.  I've been waiting to attend one rally before election day and Sunday is the last chance to take in a live Obama speech.   I had a feeling he would swing by C town one last time and unfortunately I was right. Sunday's rally will be an epic event I'm sure.  Hell, Springsteen will even be there.  In the end I'm sticking to the original plan, knocking on doors until my knuckles hurt.

I could go the rally knowing that doing it won't do anything to claim one additional vote.  Canvassing isn't all that exciting but there is a crucial need to keep feeding the ground game that's going to win this state for Obama. I'll suck it up and play a part in that last push on the streets.  I know it sounds selfless but have you heard about the pain in the ass parking is going to be?  And Jesus has everyone forgotten about 2004?  Kerry had a rally on the mall the night before the election along with Bruce and the next day, well we know what happened.

Knock knock knock.

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Prison Is a Series of Cells

Go easy on him judge he's currently the longest serving U.S. Senator. Yesterday Ted " the internet is a series of tubes" Stevens was found guilty on all counts related to his indictment for public corruption. Uncle Ted, Big Oil's Manchurian candidate shows us that it's not the kickbacks but the lying about kickbacks that always gets you in the end.

Ted is still running for re-election despite the conviction. Unfortunately for him Alaska law prohibits Ted from voting for himself.

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Tales From 8 Days Out

Step Up and Be Counted
We early voted this past Saturday. I would have gone earlier but I hadn't made a final decision on all of the state and local issues until this past week. More on the issues in a later post. The Summit County location was busy, around 200 people waiting to get their ballots. The good thing is that the Job Center has plenty of room, no waiting in the rain. The whole process took about an hour but it was worth it. There was something meaningful in the way people from all walks of life stood as their names were called out by poll workers to get their ballots. James so and so step up and change history.

An Early Voting Snapshot from Cuyahoga
Speaking of early voting numbers I was able to get some raw numbers from Cuyahoga County for today's (10/27) early voting turnout. Sorry I don't know anyone ant Summit BOE. Here are the results from today's busy round of voting in the county to the north:

Dems 2,179
Newly Registered 492
Reps 60
Indy (Wafflers) 544
Total 3,275

Being conservative, that's about 80-85% Obama support. Does this mean that Obama voters are more enthused than McCain voters or is this an indication of something more dramatic? Sure Cuyahoga is heavy D but only 60 registered R's out of the over 3,000 that showed up. They must be voting absentee. Maybe we're approaching the overwhelming force number that's a tipping point for an Obama win in Ohio.

The Local Ground Game
The Obama Ohio GOTV effort has been hitting Akron and west suburbs hard the past month. There have been volunteers in our neighborhood every weekend this month and I'm sure they'll be back this weekend. Speaking as a foot soldier who has been canvassing the past three weeks I can attest to the large numbers of ordinary citizens offering up weekend time to knock on doors. The energy level at the Akron headquarters is high and the place is packed with volunteers every weekend looking to make a difference in some way. I've walked neighborhoods in Northwest Akron, Fairlawn and Bath with varying levels of support for Obama. I think Summit County is going to turn out a massive number of votes for our guy come election day. Will it be enough though?

Robo Call BS from Voinovich
Got a robo call from Sen. George Voinovich on my cell phone tonight. I hung up the call before listening to the actual message. Geez, this guy only shows up to make silly accusations about the Democratic candidate for president or to rant about casinos. I'm supposed to waste time listening to him blather on about his opinion on something I don't care about? I did call George's office and voice my about his stupid call interrupting my dinner.

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Nat City Gets TARPed

It was only a matter of time for National City Bank. The subprime inflicted damage and bad financial outlook took its toll on the local banking mainstay. The news we had all been waiting for finally hit this morning. The buyer, PNC a Pittsburgh based bank with backing from the U.S Treasury, is plopping down a mere $5.6 billion for National City. The deal is being aided with funding from the government bailout program (from Marketwatch):

PNC also said it plans to sell $7.7 billion of preferred stock to the Treasury under the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.

The U.S. Treasury giveth and PNC taketh your locally headquartered bank away. Talk about unintended consequences of of the bailout plan. The very plan that was designed to salvage the banking system has also hastened the loss of local prestige and an untold number of good paying jobs. This new facet of the Treasury plan includes using up to $125 billion in funds to shore up large banks, like PNC. As usual with corporate mergers,Northeast Ohio gets caught on the short end of the deal.

The Cleveland bank whose name is festooned on several downtown buildings and inside Cleveland Browns Stadium has been in trouble since early this year. The cash infusion from a private equity firm this spring wasn't enough to keep National City's stock price from sliding into Hades and setting off warning bells in the local business community.

As we are seeing first hand that the Treasury program is a neutral arbiter of the needs of the macro level players of the financial system. The bailout was not intended to rescue the real economy. The inhabitants of the ground floor are powerless observers of the sea changes that are happening as the financial sector reconfigures itself. The worried looks on the faces of Nat City employees that I see on East Ninth Street and the North Coast Express have turned to quiet resignation. There's not much that can be done other than wait and see if their jobs will be eliminated (some probably have an inkling). The damage to the 401k plans has already been done and now careers of hundreds of employees, taxpayers and consumers are about to be drawn into the turbulence.

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Don't Trust the Polls

I am spending too much time obsessing over the polling data. As a self professed fivethirtyeight.com junky I enjoy soaking up Nate Silver's latest daily regression of the polls and the matching pretty graphics. Today's composite chart from Pollster.com is crack for the eyes. The familiar spread continues to widen with the last few says of the trend pointing in almost opposite directions. That's a damn work of art.

Sure things look good for Obama and bad for McCain right now. The polls have add for election observer's and make me feel all warm and fuzzy. Don't take solace in the polls though. There is still a lot of campaign left and I won't feel safe until this one is in the bag on November 5th. My worst nightmare is having one of those Bush 2004 hangovers the day after the election. Except this year it would be a head splitting Palin migraine from hell.

Staring at poll data doesn't do anything to get one additional vote. So close out of Firefox or IE7 (dummy) and get off your collective butts. Walk away from the Internets and go early vote (only once) or knock on some doors for the Obama campaign. The stupid little pie charts on fivethirteight aren't going anywhere trust me, I keep checking.

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Bennett Comes Up For Air

The Ohio GOP's decision to drop its court battle over voter registration may signal a brief detente with Jennifer Brunner. That news and a call to negotiate comes as a surprise but a welcome one. Don't be fooled into thinking the change in tactics is a change in strategy though. The realization that the lawsuit method wasn't gaining any traction finally sunk in and there is still time to regroup. One of the GOP attorneys was quoted as saying different approach was needed.

I can't imagine that the GOP dropped the suit because they are genuinely concerned about the potential ill effects on voter turnout. The change in approach may just mean there are other ways to create problems for legitimate voters on election day. The idea of a court created caging list sounded grand but time is a wasting. Maybe the impact of early voting was a factor in the decision to move away from litigating, for now. Early voting is looking like a much needed relief valve to take the pressure off of the line and the process on Nov. 4th. The GOP has probably conceded that voter caging is not going to have the effect of creating confusion as in years past now that voters have the early option.

Don't count out future court action even if it comes after the election. If for some sick twist of fate Ohio ends up being close enough for a recount then look for the friends of Bob to mount legal challenges to the method of voter verifications. With this in mind don't forget to vote early.

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Obama and the Powell Doctrine

It's a start.

Colin Powell's complicity in the run up to the Iraq war has never set well with me. He is a soldier's soldier and bucking the chain of command was not in the cards that fateful day in February of 2003. A courageous act like crossing party lines in a moment of attention grabbing honesty did a lot to bring people like me back into the Powell's circle of trust. Now that Powell has gone forward with his endorsement the dynamic of the race continues to change in Obama's favor. As I've been saying the way to win this election is through the Powell doctrine of overwhelming force.

The Powell doctrine in practice.
The Obama campaign has indeed continued to generate the momentum that will build into an overwhelming force come election day. It is fitting that the man who championed the strategy is adding to that wave by jumping party lines and endorsing Obama. Combine the nod from Colin Powell with the ginormous cash hall the campaign raised in September and the force grows. Add in the cascade of endorsements of major newspapers regardless of past political alignment of their editorial boards and the unstoppable nature of the force is apparent. By the time November rolls around an election victory will be inevitable. No matter what crack pot charges are lobbed by Team McCain and regardless of GOP attempts to suppress voter turnout.

Two questions arise from Powell endorsement
Will the McCain attack machine be rendered useless in the wake of Powell's support? If not will the attack dogs raise the question of why a four star general endorsed a terrorist for president?

In an unforeseen twist to the story did Powell just launch himself onto the short list of potential candidates for Secretary of State if Obama is elected? I may be half way to accepting Powell's mea culpa for his disappointing performance during the run up the Iraq war. I'm not sure if his credibility has been restored one hundred percent though. Still even the thought of Powell serving the Obama administration in some other advisory capacity is an intriguing thought. Maybe a role in unwinding the Iraq occupation would be fitting.

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Post Bailout: Thermometers and Barometers

It will take months to really know if the government plan to rescue our sick financial system is a master stroke or dismal failure.  For now any progress in improving the credit markets is not that apparent to the casual observer.   Some of the indicators that signal relief in the credit markets have shown some improvement.  As reported by Calculated Risk some signs of improving liquidity in the credit markets are popping up.  Most notably some spreads like the TED have improved and the yield on treasuries has increased a little.  Paul Krugman seconds the notion that things are happening.

Unfortunately the economic reality that you and I reside in is headed for a slide.  That sinking feeling was amplified by decline in retail sales (reported as a 1.2% decrease) weakening industrial production and the sorry picture painted by the Fed Beige Book.  The question amongst talking heads and economists is not if there is a recession but, how long and how deep the recession will be. I hope Wall Street enjoys their bailout because the rest of us will be hanging on for the rough ride ahead. 

There's a great new podcast from the elitists at NPR called Planet Money.  Check it out, they're doing a good job of disseminating information that is fit for consumption even if you're economically challenged.

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Quest For The Perfect Caging List

As sure as the leaves will fall off the trees this fall the Ohio GOP will strive to find ways to prevent a free and unfettered election process. The plan usually depends on carving out a large group of potential voters and finding a way to divert them into provisional ballot purgatory. As we have seen this year Bob Bennet et al have focused their energy on creating a court enforced caging list. Why spend untold dollars mailing out certified letters in order to identify potential victims of their age old suppression racket? The events of 2008 have given these creeps the perfect backdrop for asking the courts to do the work for them.

The tactics may differ but the strategy is always the same, divert as many potential voters to the confused path of provisional balloting and hope the election is close. Bill Boyarsky sums it up:

Republicans, as they did in 2004, can make massive challenges of voters in Democratic areas, creating confusion and slowing the vote. Challenged voters cast provisional ballots, which are counted later. But in 2004 many potential voters walked away from long lines created by the challenges. Some doubted that their provisional ballots would be counted.

The histrionics over the ACORN voter registrations and the new focus on getting Jennifer Brunner to employ cross matching have provided the poor slobs on the right the latest method to create that special underclass of voters. The key to this year's scheme is getting a court to enforce the tactics. The corollary to the plan is to turn up the heat on the ACORN story by drumming up white fear and relying on law enforcement to legitimize the fear about the group's activity. And yes, I said white fear. There are reports on numerous threats and racial slur laden emails the group has been receiving since the fear has been ratcheted up.

After losing 9-0 in the US Supreme Court the GOP re-modulated faster than the Borg and filed a new challenge with the Ohio Supremes. This latest filing should worry anyone concerned about the real integrity of this election considering the heavy conservative leaning of the Ohio court. A victory for the GOP will enshrine their caging tactic as version 2.0 and keep the tactic alive for future elections. If the SCO sides with Brunner then the chance to see a fair outcome in the Ohio becomes more of a reality. In the end the only real hedge for winning this election is an overwhelming force of support for the Democratic candidate.

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Talk to Krugman's Hand

I'm one of the many Paul Krugman acolytes who is thrilled over his winning the Nobel Prize. I'm an avid reader of his columns, blog and books. I even manage to peruse some of his academic stuff when I'm feelin' wonky. He of course won the prize for his work on international trade patterns and economic geography not the column. Although most of the attention he has received in the popular press is for his regular column in the NYT and the complimentary blog where he has offered scathing reviews of the Prez and his people.

Krugman has been able to train his analytical thought processes and liberal philosophy on the destructive inclinations of Bush era policies and create a narrative for what went wrong in the intervening years of the Bush presidency. He was just on This Week with George S. and was forced to match wits with that well known economic genius George Will. Dr. Krugman somehow managed to rebut Will's assertion that the troubles in the financial markets are attitudinal not systemic.

His brutal honesty in assessing the dismal failures of movement conservatism as exercised through the current occupiers of the administration has made him a lightning rod for the wrath of conservative bloviators. I've lost count of how many times Bill O'Reilly has referred to Krugman as a socialist. I'm sure there will be plenty more howling from right wing pundits that were already reeling from Al Gore's Nobel Prize selection last year.

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Akron Sewer Lease, Vote Maybe

Signs for Issue 8 are appearing all over Akron pleading the passerby to consider the future of our children. The City of Akron's plan to create a scholarship program funded with proceeds from a public infrastructure lease has merit but questions remain on the funding scheme. Will we citizens inherit a plan with sound funding or one that smells like the composting plant in the valley?
Creating a fund for scholarships for Akron residents is an idea that has could be a boon for the city's future. Establishing a realistic baseline for the anticipated sources of funds hasn't been made very clear as of yet. I would feel more confident about the legitimacy of the plan in it's entirety, not just the uses side, if more information on the financing can be revealed. So far the Mayor has painted in broad brush strokes when it comes to the financial structure of the lease plan. I think a finer level of detail other than the current "sewers are worth some money" sloganeering is needed here. I checked the Akron Scholarship Plan website for more information on the mechanics of the funding and what lease would entail. After a read through of the proposed charter amendment I had more questions. Some things that I would like to find out before casting a vote on Issue 8:

What is the Akron Community Fund? I know what it is being portrayed as in the charter language. It's an organization that the Finance Director will contract out the management of the Scholarship Program/Lease Revenue. Will this group actually manage City funds? Isn't the City legally bound to issue a request for bids for this type of service? The fact that the City is using an outside group to manage the program and the fund raises questions on the administrative costs associated with the plan. Will teh contract be for a fixed rate with a not to exceed amount? It should be. Remember less savings equals less scholarship money.

The City will transfer all net proceeds from the lease agreement to Akron Community Fund. Will the lease payment be received up front? Normally lease payments are made annually. Is the City opting to take the net present value of all of the lease payments up front? What rate of return is being considered?

The net proceeds are transferred after all outstanding debt (bonds, notes, loans) is paid off. What is the amount of those obligations? That will lower the net proceeds available for the program. I am guessing the City doesn't have much in the way of outstanding sewer bonds since they raised rates to pay for the CSO projects like Rack 40. Like other sewer systems they probably have some EPA loans and OWDA loans to pay off. That amount of debt is an important piece of the puzzle.

Speaking of capital improvements, I'm still not clear on how these are handled. There is language stating that the lessee must comply with laws and regulations set by the EPA and standards set by the Director of Public Service. There is also language stating that improvements must be approved separately by the City? So who pays for the improvements? Wouldn't the hefty price tag on improving CSO problems scare investors away? The temptation to cut operating costs by shirking environmental laws has to be a plausible risk in leasing to a private operator. What type of oversight will the City maintain over the lessee?

What happens if the city inks a deal that generates a substantially lower amount than the planned $200 million that is being indicated? What is the city fails to attract an interested party because the terms are not favorable to a prospective lessee? What if the trouble in the capital markets scares everyone away? The charter amendment caps rate increases at 3.9% per year based on the current rate adjustment plan in place. The lease deals I've read about have allowed the lessee to raise user fees as they see fit to make the investment worthwhile.

And lastly, will the new operator be willing to do something about the smell out at the City composting facility? Just thought I'd ask.

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Seamore Butts Is Not the Problem

The latest hysteria over fraudulent voter registration cards is an overblown reaction to a minor issue. The stories about bad voter registration cards are hyped as indicators of insidious election fraud coordinated to tilt the election in one candidate's favor. The Plain Dealer and some other media outlets have been in a tailspin recently over problems with a small number of voter registration turned in to Cuyahoga County by ACORN.

A story in the PD about the voter registrations in question describes the situation but finally manages to provide some much needed context as to what is happening in Cuyahoga County. As you could have guessed the amount of names in question is minimal, the story by Joe Guillen indicates 50 out of 65,000 cards turned in have problems. According to my slide rule that would be a staggering 0.08% (I'm even rounding up) of registrations turned in to the elections board. The cards were already flagged by board employees so it's not a voting issue. Even the normally bitchy pants Rob Frost, Chairman of the Cuyahoga County GOP wasn't overly concerned, from the PD:

But even Chairman Rob Frost, the second Republican member on the county's election board, said the potentially fraudulent registration cards do not jeopardize the fairness of the election.

His opinion on the lack of severity of the matter was seconded by the other Republican member of the Cuyahoga County BOE, Jeff Hastings. The consensus seems to be that the bad registrations are a result of a sloppy operation on the part of ACORN's staff not a concerted effort to have everyone vote three times. That understanding over the ACORN voter card issue has been lost on the McCain Campaign. Seeing another line of attack McCain and his advisors have begun to link Obama to the group and it's alleged diabolical scheme to register fake voters. If you were part of the flailing John McCain campaign you'd probably do the same thing. Claiming that a few erratic voter registration cards threaten the election process isn't an honest assessment of the real problems facing voters.

A story written by Dennis Willard appearing in today's ABJ highlights the true threat to free and unfettered elections. In his account the Greene County (Ohio) Sheriff had taken up the banner of fighting election fraud. What made this case disturbing was the Jim Crowe era tactics attempted by a elected law enforcement official. As Willard points out Sheriff Gene Fischer took it upon himself with no evidence of apparent wrong doing (only rumors) to start investigating the names of the 300 or so persons who early voted in Greene County. Fischer's requests involved seeking the public and non public information of the people who early voted. Presumably the names would include some of the students attending two historically black universities that are located within the County. The arbitrary and seemingly biased way that this "investigation " was started is enough to sound the tocsin over voter suppression:

This ill-conceived act is enough to raise questions about Fischer's understanding of the law and his sensitivity to ensuring that voters —especially African-American voters — feel secure and not threatened by exercising their fundamental rights, but his ineptitude did not occur in a vacuum.

The context Willard refers to is the importance of Ohio in this election and the issues that demobilizing voters, be they black or white through intimidation and suppression could have on the outcome.

The real problem with elections in swing states like Ohio is and has always been voter suppression and purging of voter roles. Unlike registration drives from outside groups these two menaces are abetted by the government bodies charged with protecting our most important franchise. A dark and inequitable force that seems to gravitate around poor and working class citizens in economically depressed areas.

Just in the past few weeks there have been stories of attempts to purge voters from the rolls in Michigan, Colorado and even in Ohio (no way). The story is repeated every four years and the purging always seems to zero in on minority and poor voters. In fact Michigan officials were going to attempt to challge voters who's homes had been foreclosed on and thus had outdated mailing addresses. Who can forget the voter challenging drives and caging lists in Ohio in 2004? That round of voter suppression was brought to you by the Ohio GOP and the fomerly important Ken Blackwell. An exhaustive story by Robert Kennedy Jr. detailed the damage caused to the fairness of Ohio's voting system in 2004.

Clearly the likes of Seamore Butts, Hugh Jass, Heywood Jablome and the Dallas Cowboys pose only minor nuisance for election board staff trying to sort through voter registrations. Troubles from phony registration cards pale in comparison to the damage caused by system enforced voter purging and suppression that rears its head every four years. I've said before the only sure way of overcoming this undemocratic influence is through the Powell Doctrine of overwhelming force. The crushing wave of support for candidates like Obama and the disdain for more Bush era policies will provide that force on election day.

If you get the chance check out Greg Palast's new web site and comic book called Steal Your Vote Back. Vote early vote often once.

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Exclusive Summit Co. Moutain Lion Pic

Unconfirmed reports say that this guy can take down deer three two at a time.

Enjoy.

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McCain Needs Fiber Infusion

I didn't have the energy to do any fancy live blogging of last night's debate but a few observations are in order:

McCain and his people have been barking about the town hall format and how that's his strong suit. If that is the case then what the hell happened last night? Things went south as soon as McCain unleashed that dry retort of "not you" to Brokaw in response to his question on Sec. of Treasury picks. As the night dragged on McCain's lurking in the background as Obama answered questions just made things stranger. McCain's now famous "that one" quip coupled with ad nauseam use of the "my friends" technique all indicated a man teetering on the edge of senior citizenship. Add the long Christmas list style notes written with a Sharpie and it becomes clear that this guy should be thinking about hanging it up to enjoy his golden years in Sedona.

Seriously, when you start exhibiting overt signs of old age as McCain clearly is now is the time to ease back and take it easy. It's best to be relax, stay close to a bathroom and load up on plaid pants. This is not time to be running for president, just ask Bob Dole.

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49 Nifty United States

Sarah Palin has completely degenerated into self parody at this point in the race.  Could it be any more obvious that she serves no other purpose than to rile up the base at those creepy-ass rallies?  By now the media cycle has been permeated with this one liner:

"This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America..."

We sadly know the rest by now.  I wouldn't expect the MSM not to pick up this meme and repeat it,that's what they do.  What sticks in my craw is that I have yet to see one outlet at least come back and mention Saracuda's association with the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party.  When she says " the way you and I see America", does she mean one with only forty nine states?  Could at least one crummy news publication or cable show at least bring this up, just once? 

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