Petroblogging: A Modest Proposal on Offshore

After several weeks of dueling on the supposed merits the political tide is turning for offshore drilling. The possibility of opening up most of the coastal U.S. for oil exploration looks more likely as of this week. This change in direction had nothing to do with sound economic strategy or a thorough technical review of the feasibility of increasing offshore drilling. The basis for the looming shift in energy policy is due to people (citizens, politicians, pundits) freaking out over a wrinkle (high gasoline prices) in their daily lives. As is often the case with wide reaching policy changes the patch for this problem is an over reach from policy actors who put offshore drilling into play.

Political Ramifications
At first the spillover from the offshore drilling debate was contained the floor of Congress and cable news shows. Then McCain took hold of the meme and sharpened his sword with it using it to go after Obama. The tactic has seemed to payoff. The latest round of polls from swing states in particular showed McCain gaining ground partially over the fear of high gas prices and Obama's lack of support for a supply side view of the oil world. Even polls on the average person's view of offshore drilling were working in McCain's favor. Who wouldn't take the advice of overly fanaticized and uninformed consumers looking for any magical form of relief from high gasoline prices. The Republican tizzy in the House of representatives on Friday afternoon was probably the last tipping point in the often ignored and seemingly mundane topic of drilling for oil out in the ocean.

The leading edge of the Democratic shift in offshore also came Friday when Obama announed he would suppport a compromise in lifting the offshore drilling moratorium. Obama made the policy statement to the Palm Beach Post in an interview and didn't sound to excited with the revised stance on drilling:

"Like all compromises, it also includes steps that I haven't always
supported," he said. "I remain skeptical that new offshore drilling
will bring down gas prices in the short-term or significantly reduce
our oil dependence in the long-term, though I do welcome the
establishment of a process that will allow us to make future drilling
decisions based on science and fact."

That last part about basing decisions on science and fact is a bit ambitious considering how the debate has transpired. Anyway allowing offshore drilling is not the end of the world. I think there is much to be gained in a compromise deal in the way of environmental protections and exploration related revenue.

Let Them Have It
So the oil companies will expand web of drilling platforms up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Does anyone think they are going to jump into the new exploration at full clip? Would it really behoove Exxon or Shell to layout perhaps billions of capital dollars in the near term and quickly begin delivering massive amounts of oil to the world market? Hell no. The last thing they would do is knowingly bottom out the market for crude oil by driving the price down. Did you see their quarterly earnings numbers that were announced last week? That's a cash cow that they aren't going to mess with. So give them a longer leash to explore and drill the entirety of the coastal waters of the U.S. They'll gladly accept the fortuitous turn of events and then sit on the newly available leases as they see fit.

The Compromise Is The Key
Both Obama and McCain are signaling that they would be agreeable to an energy compromise bill that lifts the ban on offshore drilling and throws in other policy objectives related to energy independence. My favorite is the requirement that all oil produced in the offshore sites be sold in the American market. Go right ahead and add that to the compromise. Any oil that does get produced (if they get around to it) will be used to supplant oil from other regions of the world that was destined for the U.S. I think a developing country like China may be interested in buying the redirected supplies of oil not destined to the U.S. markets.

The other key component that should be in the compromise would be the agreement to not open up ANWR as part of the deal. With the vastness of the offshore sites being offered dwarfing ANWR there may be some traction to keep the Alaskan wilderness untouched for the foreseeable future. I haven't heard any major rumblings about opening ANWR up as part of the latest offshore drilling proposals so maybe this would fly.

To achieve real compromise that is beneficial to the greatest number of stakeholders a deal on offshore drilling should include these nuggets:

Structure a revenue sharing system like that used between oil companies and other countries. These profit sharing agreements (PSA) devote a set rate of royalties that paid back to the Federal or state government for leasing the offshore sites for exploration and recovery. This would be on top of the normal leasing revenue.

The Federal portion of the PSA royalties would be directed to an alternative energy development fund. The dollars fed into the fund wold be dedicated to the ellusive Apollo type project for renewable energy that everyone keeps yammering about. The majority of the funding could be directed at spurring R&D through grants to public and private instituions.

The states that benefit from leasing offshore sites should sign a compact that defines their role in revenue sharing and use of the royalty payments. These states stand to benefit handsomely from the production of oil off their shores. Of course with that reward comes the risk of getting slimed and having beach tourism and fishing industry ruined by oil spills. The risk is commensurate with the return. This being the case the compact entered into by the states should require all costs related to oil spills be borne by those states. There should be no Federal bailout of an oil rich Florida or whatever other state decides to take a chance with oil drilling offshore.

Other odds and ends that could be included in the compromise would be requirements to offset carbon emissions from the additional exploration, revisiting CAFE standards and a review of any remaining tax subsidies oil companies are currently receiving to see if they can be phased out.

In the end a successful compromise package will remove offshore drilling from the arsenal of the McCain attack dogs during the campaign and they would be free to focus on other fluff material. The American people in turn get some temporary and psychological relief from their oil price angst. My guess is that in seven to ten years from now oil prices will not have subsided in the least and the once ballyhooed new drilling will not have delivered as promised. Most of the new leases will probably not be producing in the ten year time period. The good news is that the lack of production will have spared coastal states from nasty oil spills.

The Bankruptcy Reform I Told You So

Remember that one time in 2005 when Congress did the bidding of the credit card companies and passed a bankruptcy reform law? It was supposed to help credit card companies and other financiers of short term credit mitigate the abuses of the bankruptcy system. In return there was an explicit (by my recollection) reciprocation offered by said firms to lower rates and fees associated with their business line.

That seemed like a load of bull crap from the start but the GOP controlled Congress was on a roll back then and the bill written by the same firms that would benefit from its passage was passed and signed into law. It even had plenty of help from moderate Dems like some guy named Ted Strickland. The whole sordid affair of the influence peddling in the case of this wretched law has been well documented in books like The Broken Branch by Ornstein and Mann.

Fast forward to 2008 were the stories of our collective economic anxiety and oil price angst fill pages of newsprint on a daily basis. The NYT ran a piece on the strangle hold that credit providers maintain over their hapless borrowers and the massive growth of revenue generated from the endless credit cards and loans that we consumerist Americans seem to be so addicted to. The payoff is the empirical indication that the bankruptcy reform law did not save us money but rather made money for it's supporters. The article cites a study conducted at a little known institution called Harvard University:

Not surprisingly, such practices generated dazzling profits for the nation’s financial companies. And since 2005, when the bankruptcy law was changed, the credit card industry has increased its earnings 25 percent, according to a new study by Michael Simkovic, a former James M. Olin fellow in Law and Economics at Harvard Law School.

The“2005 bankruptcy reform benefited credit card companies and hurt their customers,” Mr. Simkovic concluded in his study. He said that even though sponsors of the bankruptcy bill promised that consumers would benefit from lower borrowing costs as delinquent borrowers were held more accountable, the cost of borrowing from credit card companies has actually increased anywhere from 5 percent to 17 percent.

What can we learn from this? The current economic malaise that hovers around us has some root in the supplication of special interests as was the clear case with the 2005 law on bankruptcy reform. The lobbyists and campaign advisers that candidate X prefers to surround themselves with makes a difference to the poor saps that may end up at the wrong end of special interest crafted policies. A real critical difference if you are just trying to ride out the current economic tempest.

Schools For Sewers Headed To Ballot

As reported by the ABJ Mayor Don has elected to put his sewer lease plan on the ballot this fall and let residents decide if it will float or not. The move will apparently preempt the grassroots group, Save Our Sewers, from placing their own measure on the ballot and give the City deference in deciding the ballot language. Who would have though there are people with an affintiy for sewers? Plusquellic's quotes in the ABJ story highlight his building mayoral indigence with the SOS people:

Plusquellic said he decided to ''call their [SOS's] bluff'' and ask City Council to put the issue on the November ballot before the group resubmitted its petitions.

***
Plusquellic called SOS a group of ''naysayers'' with ''no principles or morals'' that wants to make the city look bad.

The second statement sounds like a case of the final term blahs. These guys sometimes get more salty as their tenure begins to wind down. Each criticism of a proposal such as this elicits a nasty response and is perceived as a threat to their mayoral legacy. I remember seeing this type of reaction from Mike White during his last term as mayor of Cleveland. Although he tended to fire people when he was in a bad mood.

In the end let this thing go to vote. The SOS folks have a good point but I'm not sure it will resonate with voters. If the scholarship aspect is made to be the key element of the initiative and residents can be assured rates can be capped then this plan may get approved. The education facet of the plan is great but there is another side to this transaction.

If the opponents are sharp enough they will focus on the pitfalls of privatizing a City service and future impact on other services. Not to mention the chances it will be a foreign entity that assumes the operation. Would the water system be next? The questionable outcome of creating $200 million from a lease and then not expecting rates to increase should also be front and center. An investor may be willing to front $200 million to operate the system but only if they can get that investment and a sizable return back over time. Unless commonly known economic precepts have been altered that means sewer rate increases and cutting operating and capital expenses would be in order. Would maintenance be deferred as means of accelerating the return on investment? Do you want poorly maintained sewers running underneath your street? All good things to ponder during your next trip to the bathroom.

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Le Tour Needs Another Le Champ

The 95th Tour de France rolls to a start Saturday without some big names including last years winner Alberto Contador. Young Alberto and his team (including American Levi Leipheimer) were not invited to Le Tour this year. Something about doping scandals and last year's Astana squad being infiltrated by cheaters I guess. Never mind that because the Tour has always been bigger than the controversies and the individual racers that come and go.

Contrary to George Vecsey's article in the New York Times (carried by the ABJ) there are still plenty of cycling's well known in this year's TDF. Try Cadel Evans (2nd in 2007), Damiano Cunego (2004 Giro winner) and Alejandro Valverde to name few. Leaving Team Astana out does leave a gap in the field but not one that can't be filled by riders like these and others not mentioned. Also the UCI had no problem with this year's Astana squad. Contrary to what Vecsey reports it was the Tour organizing body ASO and TDF president Christian Prudhomme that elected to banish Astana from the Tour. Anyhow the show must go on and go on it will.

What Le Tour needs is a champion not another single year winner. We are in the midst of an interim period where there are no repeat champions to rescue the race. Take the time period between 1995, the year Indurain won his fifth and final Tour and 1999 when Lance claimed his first title. Those intervening years were not dominated by any one rider or team. The races in the late 1990's had an assortment of characters (Pantani) and scandal (The Festina affair) that highlighted the need for a champion.

So here we are again in a time period of no clear cut dominant team or repeat winner and the Tour has been beset with problems. These problems are to sure shake out as the the sport clears its baffles of drugs and cheating. The tour has survived a lot of problems including two world wars. Could the winnner of the 2008 TDF be the next repeat winner and bring austerity back the Maillot Jaune? That would be great start.

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Petroblogging: Another Senator Drillmore

Senator Voinovich was in Mansfield today commiserating with constituents on the high (oh so very high) price of oil. The senior senator from Ohio has a multi-pronged approach to getting us out of our oily predicament. He's all for the ever popular "Manhattan Project" for developing new energy sources as well as using less of the black crud. The crux of his plan though is the "drill the shit out of the North America" strategy that resonates with conservative lawmakers and oil tycoons alike. From his remarks carried by the Mansfield News Journal:

Of the President going to Saudi Arabia asking for more oil, Voinovich said he remarked, “If I were King Abdullah, I would have said, ‘Mr. President, you have this great source of oil in ... Alaska — why haven’t you looked into that? And how about the shale oil out west? You’ve got 800 billion barrels of proven reserves. You’ve got vast amounts of shale oil.’ Then I would say, ‘Mr. President, you can get tar sand oil from Canada. And by the way, don’t you have a lot of coal in the U.S.? Why not turn coal into liquids?’"

George starts out sounding good but his talk usually degenerates into the safe for GOP prime time talking points pulled right from the day's memo. He's done the very same with Iraq at times. All very predictable. Why can't our congress peoples, regardless of party, stand up and say there will be no more additional large scale drilling. Furthermore we are all being punished for being shortsighted and letting the thirst for oil money drive our civilization into the ground. That would be refreshing.

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Petroblogging: Speculating on Speculation

Once again our eyes and ears are being bombarded by the 24 hour Oil News Cycle. This latest iteration of the quickly evolving narrative has turned to the effects of speculation on oil prices. We still have not spent as much time on the real culprit - demand - as I would like to see.

If you have the time and want some nuts and bolts understanding of how speculation is not the primary cause of our oily woes read this brief paper by Paul Krugman. It comes with some graphs and sexy economic terms like "contango" but it gets to the science of what's going on with spot (short term) and future oil prices. Dr. Krugman has been one of the few liberal voices urging readers to resist the overly simplistic and unproven case that speculators are the root cause of increasing (I hate the word skyrocketing, it is way overused. I once had a finance professor ban the word from all writing assignments) oil prices in lieu of other factors.

In the end the only sure way out of this mess is to use less of the cruddy black stuff not blame traders. Conservation is more than just a virtue its part of the solution. If you still want to blame speculation for the current situation in the oil markets, that's fine. Just consider yourself in the same camp as our double crossing Saudi friends who also share this view.

Drive less, pay less.

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The Big FISA Wuss Out

The House approved a compromised update to the FISA law on Friday and with that ends any speculation of there being reasonable restraints on government eavesdropping. It appears that election year pressures to be "tough" on national security have trumped the desire to provide meaningful oversight of the once warrantless program to gather endless bytes of data on any person in the U.S.

Just looking at the large number of Dems (105) that sided with GOP members of the House signals how anxious the moderate wing of the Democratic party was get this pesky issue out of the way. I'm curious was to where all the libertarian small government types have been in this one.

The tech-news sphere of reporting seems to be the only area of the online media that is condemning the passage of the law with some certitude. Some good follow up reporting can be found at Ars Technica and the EFF website. The approval of the FISA authorization includes telco immunity and allows the NSA to use general warrants to surveil large swaths of data based on loose parameters (don't take my word for it).

The joining together of Republicans and Democrats in the House demonstrates that the idea of bipartisan compromise doesn't always bring forth sound policy. If you are one of the many Americans unaware of the significance of this concentration of power or if you just don't mind America slouching towards a police state then you are probably content with the news.

Some recognition is due to local House members Betty Sutton and Tim Ryan. Both decided to stand on principle despite the overwhelming tide against it and voted nea on the FISA bill. Don't leave them hanging, call their respective offices and thank them for their principled stand if you care. They are sure to face negative campaign adds over their votes the next time they run for re-election.

Also of note are the ten Republican members that did not vote on the FISA bill for various reasons. The most noticeable of these was liberterian leaning champion of limited government Ron Paul. Even more reason to believe the darling of the latest resurgence against the current GOP is more talk than substance.

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Another Russert Reflection

What can I say about Tim Russert that hasn't already been said? I can only echo the shock everyone else seems to be expressing over his passing. He was the one guy we wanted to be there to sort out the electoral mess we may be watching on a late Tuesday night. I think the little white board that could belongs in the Smithsonian.

I was fortunate enough to attend one of his speaking engagements about four years ago at EJ Thomas Hall. A full house enjoyed the political stories and insight he had to provide that night. He also did some Q&A from the audience at the end of the night. I remember his somber assessment of what he felt was the biggest challenge facing American governance in the 21st century. In his estimation (I'm paraphrasing from memory) the entitlements of Social Security and Medicare would be a crucial test for future leaders. His point was hard policy choices would have to be made in order to balance the sustainability of these programs with the fiscal solvency of the federal budget. His words on this subject were tempered with that notorious objective journalistic edge as well as the insight he clearly had gained from working for Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

Tim knew that the real policy questions at the heart of political discourse were the lifeblood of our democracy. He brought that idea to his viewers and the American electorate on a weekly basis. We can't afford to lose sight of that during the next election.

Ding Ding, It's On

Just watched Barack blow the doors off the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul. The speech of course was his declaration of a clinch of the nomination and much much more. It was also a clarion call to get everyone off their asses and get ready for the fight ahead.

He didn't hold back when counter punching McCain's earlier speech and made it clear with the numerous swipes at the flaws in the GOP's platform. I especially enjoyed the reference he made to how his campaign will not "use religion as a wedge and patriotism as a bludgeon". It's good to see he's showing some fortitude when it comes to pushing back against the flag lapel pin litmus test antics of the past few moths.

Right now Chris Matthews and Tom Brokaw are obsessing over the "tactile" nature of the Obama's post speech sweep through the arena crowd. Time to call it night boys?

The Ameritrap Chronicles

Just when you thought there were was nothing left to print about Cuyahoga County's Ameritrust Tower woes comes another piece about the flawed deal. This time a long overdue narrative in the June issue of Cleveland Magazine provides a thorough time-line of the whole plan to move County employees into the asbestos riddled tower on East 9th Street. The piece authored by Erick Trickey provides the most accurate rendition of the deal's conception and subsequent decay into a taxpayer funded real estate debacle (or fiasco) that I have seen so far.

The article does well to paint a picture of the lack of strategic thinking exhibited by Cuyahoga's commissioners on the whole Ameritrust scheme. There has been plenty of criticism from the PD and other media sources on this one but they all seemed to focus on a specific piece of the deal. An example of this being the obsession over one particular contract award to remove asbestos from a building that exudes big brother from its Brutalist visage.

Trickey carefully reconstructs the story of the doomed County plan from past to present, weaving facts about the internal debates and analysis in near perfect chronology. What is apparent is that there was plenty of reservation about the project from internal sources as well as paid advisers but the County administration didn't heed that advice until the project became inundated with potential cost overruns from mission creep.

After stumbling into a deal to sell away the building the County may be off the hook for the gigantic cost of developing the site. That is unless the deal with the developer falls through in which case two of the commissioners think the Count project would restart:

Today, a new county building is a low priority. But Hagan and Jones say the project might be revived if K&D can’t finance the purchase, or if the county locates the new convention center and Medical Mart on downtown’s Mall and expands the site to the west, where the county offices are...

Basically they won't be rid of this one until the ink has dried on the purchase agreement. Even then there's no guarantee that the developer won't have to come crawling back begging for more subsidies.

Akron METRO's Rate Hike Deception

Not more than three months have passed since voters approved a sales tax increase for Akron METRO and there is already talk of a rate increase. A story in the ABJ that was intended to spotlight commuters switching to public transit to get to their jobs in Cleveland included this bit of news as an aside.

METRO's North Coast Express to Cleveland has see an increase in ridership as hapless commuters are giving up the keys to let METRO do the driving. The increase in use for the route that leaves from Ghent Rd has seen ridership up around fifty percent according to METRO sources quoted in the article. That all makes sense considering the impact that four dollar a gallon gas has on long distance commuters. Turning to public transportation is a win for METRO even when the changes in attitude are due to economic duress.

The snippet that caught my attention though was the admission that METRO is considering a 21% rate hike for the North Coast Express weekly rate:

Gas prices have Metro considering a price increase on the North Coast Express route from $4 to $5 each way. The 10-ride ticket would increase from $33 to $40. Those increases could go into effect in August.

We all understand that Akron METRO is feeling the same pain over rising fuel prices, no surprise there. That's why a proposed quarter percent sales tax increase was put before the voters and approved in March. METRO stated in the media, at its public hearings and in it's own printed election material that a fare increase for the Cleveland lines would be required if the tax increase didn't pass. With the passage of the sales tax increase an extra $18 million a year in revenue will be pouring into the bank in 2009. How long did this change in fortune hold off rate increases? By my count that would be four months.

Seems like the administration wasn't being completely honest with county voters or the riders of the Cleveland express line. One of the key threats to service that was dangled before the public was that same rate hike that is going to be implemented anyway (considering means a done deal). It appears as if METRO will use the source of our angst, high gas prices, as a means to ratchet up fares at will regardless of the approved tax increase. They couldn't possibly have been caught off guard by rising fuel prices so that reason seems tenuous at best. Why not raise the rate by $2 with the stated intent to phase in subsequent increases over time? Wouldn't this be a fairer and more even approach to managing the tax dollars that METRO utilizes?

Visiting Iraq Has Made McCain Stupid

What will Obama prove by visiting Iraq at this point in time? McCain has been using Obama's lack of taxpayer funded campaign stops to Iraq as a critique on his readiness to be president. The McCain camp is trying to make the case that Obama hasn't been to see the mess we've created in Iraq firsthand so he isn't prepared to deal with the situation. McCain even went as far as to offer an invitation to his likely opponent to join him on a visit to Iraq and referred to Obama's subsequent rejection as "fundamental misunderstanding of the situation in Iraq". Obama was also criticized for not sitting down with General Petraeus in that same McCain harangue.

McCain as we recall has been to Iraq recently. In fact the more he goes the less he seems to know about the situation or its complexities. His last trip ended up looking like a taxpayer funded campaign photo op. It of course was highlighted with McCain repeatedly confusing the nature of Sunni Al Queda and Shia Iran to the dismay of Joe Lieberman. Just today McCain misstated the troop levels in Iraq as being at pre-surge levels when they are clearly not. Further devaluing McCain's Iraq wisdom was his insistence a couple of days ago that Mosul was very calm the very same day that a suicide bombing was carried out, in Mosul. I'm not even going to go into details on last year's staged Baghdad market place theatrics. Maybe McCain should just remain stateside and get briefed on Iraq by his campaign advisers or Lindsey Graham. They could start by learning him the difference between Sunni and Shia factions in Iraq. God knows the current president would have done himself and everyone a favor by figuring that out before invading Iraq. Better yet McCain could go to the internets and read a good Iraq related blog like Informed Comment.

Now the Obama campaign is signaling that a trip to Iraq is in the works. Obama doesn't need to go to Iraq right now or sit down with a politically slanted General to prove his mettle on Iraq. What he does need to do is keep Iraq in the spotlight during the campaign and continue being smart and informed on the subject. It will also be prudent to keep the pressure on McCain and jump on him whenever he makes one of his frequent gaffes or crazy statements on Iraq like the one offered up today.

Widowfield Really Needs a Job Now

State representatives facing term limits have to be able to find other elected offices to hold or transition into real jobs (with help from their friends). When John Widowfield failed to win the Cuyahoga Falls Clerk of Courts race the clock really started ticking. The man who touted his military service in a political add for an office that deals in courts records was very busy trying to stay relevant or at least employed. There were even rumors that friend and political ally Mayor Don Robart would find a well paying administrative position at the City of CF for his compatriot. Things certainly started looking better when Widowfield won the Republican primary for Summit County Council, beating out Loiuse Heydorn in what was a surprising outcome for that race.

Now it's all come crashing down with Widowfield resigning his seat in the Ohio House over ethical violations. What a way to go out. The ABJ has the story of how one man was tempted by the allure of using campaign cash to purchase OSU football tickets. He can't possibly stay in the County Council race now that he's caught up in such a stinging ethical lapse. This may be the end of Widowfield's political musings for now. I'm sure there's a soft landing waiting for him somewhere on the public payrolls.

Can't Wait For Firefox 3

The next incarnation of the open source browser Firefox is due out soon. Firefox 3 will should be a blessing to all those that have some respect for how they navigate the Internets. Mozilla has made the release candidate available for those daring souls that want to test it out before it is officially released as final.

Lifehacker has a good run down on the top new features in Firefox three. It looks like the new version will be much kinder on your PC's CPU's this go around.

Vote No On the Grendell Amendment

I was thrilled and even relieved when I learned Ohio would be moving quickly to approve the Great Lakes Compact. Thrilled because I feel strongly that we have to do everything to protect the most important resource this region has, fresh water. Sure we can build Medical Marts, stadiums and wind turbines and leverage these projects to stimulate economic development, that's a good thing. As promising as these ideas sound nothing is a sure thing as water is. They may not come for the biotech and alternative energy but they will eventually have to come for the water. Getting the eight state and two Canadian province region out ahead on preserving the precious resource that is the Great Lakes is key to our future. We ain't gonna let you stick a two thousand mile long straw in our damn lake.

I am also relieved that the compact is a go because I didn't want to see the thing get delayed or even derailed by one obstinate individual. Most of the hold up in Ohio has been over the reservation of state senator Tim Grendell. His reservations about the impact of the compact on private claims to groundwater and lake access (which are already addressed in the compact) had started to look like they were going to do damage or threaten the multi-state agreement. Grendell's insistence that the approval of the compact be tied to the prerequiste passage of his lovingly crafted property rights amendment by statewide vote seemed above and beyond his normal thirst for attention. I understand Grendell is a property rights extremist but I had trouble understanding how one guy was able to hold up the Ohio approval of the compact and thus endanger the whole process of approval.

Well last week something changed and Grendell was able to assuage his own fears (well founded I'm sure) and come to an agreement with the Ohio Environmental Council on terms within the compact. Tim was willing to forgo linking the passage of the compact with a vote first on his special ballot initiative. I'd like to think that some senior Republican figure like George Voinovich made a call or a drop in visit to Grendell and made him an offer he couldn't refuse. Maybe he'll get the nod to run for State Attorney General in the next election or something like that.

In the end the State of Ohio and its Great Lakes neighbors win by taking an important step in preserving the Great Lakes. What a refreshing outlook that is. Yes folks we don't have to convert resources into cash as quickly and irresponsibly as possible to thrive as a society. Grendell has gotten loads of publicity as a staunch advocate of property rights and that's good for him and his private legal practice. As for the amendment, I'm voting no on that one. Consider the source.

State AG Office Not Keen On Residency Requirements

The Attorney General's Office is putting it's weight behind the State law that prohibits residency requirements for municipal employees. The reasoning was laid out in a filing with the Ohio Supreme Court submitted in support of the defendants in the pending cases involving Akron and Lima. This latest move against municipalities comes as the Ohio Supreme Court has agreed to rule on the issue. I guess it's no surprise that the Attorney General's Office has decided to lay down a marker on this one. Monday's GONGWER Report details Solicitor General William Marshall's (who knew we had one of these) motivation for the filing on behalf of the State Law:

Solicitor General William Marshall told the court in a brief filed late Friday that the 6^th District Court of Appeals is the third to improperly interpret a section of the Ohio Constitution in concluding the law (SB82, 126^th General Assembly) should be voided.

Justices already have accepted appeals the state filed in the two earlier cases involving the cities of Lima and Akron. The 6^th District subsequently joined them in holding that Toledo's home rule powers allow it to impose a residency requirement on police, fire and other workers.

Mr. Marshall said the 6^th District's ruling invites challenges to other Ohio laws that govern the welfare of workers.

***
Mr. Marshall said the appellate decision also warrants review because it deals with a fundamental question of state and local governance that is being litigated statewide.

Sounds like the Attorney General's Office has to maintain its law and order appearances even it means defending an ill conceived State law that contradicts the home rule powers granted by the State Constitution.

Appeasing the Saudis

There are those who would say that groveling to the Saudi King to increase oil production is a job below the pay grade of the US President. The Prez was in Saudi Arabia Friday doing just that because he has always touted his good relationship with the Saudis as leverage when it comes to oil prices. The visit with King Abdullah turned out to be a showcase of how the current administration is appeasing the Saudis. He just wanted one small thing to hold up as a reason why he is not as irrelevant as the rest of the world believes him to be. After reading the headlines yesterday I can't tell what actually transpired. The Saudis announced that they had already boosted produciton after Bush left but that move was not in response to the President's request. The Financial Times reported on the visit as a success with this quote:

The move came as Mr Bush faced intense political pressure at home provide relief from soaring petrol prices ahead of the summer driving season, but he received little credit for the Saudi announcement on Friday.

There were other MSM sources taking that angle including the Washington Times (surprise) and Reuters. The other side of the petrodollar was that the Bush was actually rebuffed by the Saudis. The balance of the reporting I read was that he was blown off. The BBC reported this when it came to a new production increase:

Saudi officials said they were already meeting demand, and had
increased production by 300,000 barrels per day earlier this month.

We are in such a bad position when it comes to oil dependency and respect in the Middle East that having to depend on what mood a Saudi king is in has become a big foreign policy deal. Until things change we'll have less and less leverage. With that in mind your government did manage to reach a deal on allowing the Saudis to develop a nuclear program for energy production. I can't shake the feeling that this is a subtle way of allowing the Saudis to accidentally acquire a nuclear capability to counter the moves being attempted by Iran to do the same thing. In the end you'll still pay $4.00 for a gallon of gasoline.

In review Bush went to Saudi Arabia and was rebuffed on his oil production request but the Saudis got assurances from your government on its continued support of Saudi hegemony in the region. They ended up with US support of a nuclear program, more weapons sales and continued protection from Iranian influence on the backs of the US military. Sounds like a pretty sweet deal to me. They may not be the our enemies but they're hardly our staunchest ally in the Middle East.

The McCain Conventional Wisdom Takes a Hit

The prevailing conventional wisdom on the McCain candidacy was fatally wounded today. The presumptive GOP nominee for president joined in on the political hit job that was telegraphed all the way from Israel today by the Prez. Any notion that the McCain of 2000 is running a clean and straight talking campaign in 2008 has all but burned up after today's harangue. You can see McCain's rejoinder to the Presidents intentional Nazi appeaser smear of Obama here. Good to see he got the memo and passed it on to Joe Leiberman.

The following bits of of the McCain campaign narrative can be thrown into the dustbin of history, they include but are not limited to:

1. McCain will run a clean campaign and condemn swiftboat style attacks from outside groups.
2. McCain will distance himself from Bush on the campaign trail.
3. McCain will attract disgruntled Hillary Democrats in the General Election.
4. McCain will be the maverick candidate he purported to be in 2000.
   

Using these points to benchmark the presidential campaign as it progresses will help you and your love ones avoid any inconvenient surprises.

Johnny Edwards and the Elusive Endorsement

John Edwards is on stage in Grand Rapid, MI endorsing Obama right now. This all happened rather quickly but the message it's sending to the Clinton campaign must be striking. He's even lending his "One America" speech material to Obama during the endorsement.

This is a definite watershed in the race for the nomination as well as the general election indeed. With Edwards lending his fire to Obama the momentum is surely building for the Dems. John McCain who?

Petroblogging: Greed's Oily Residue

Oil and all the woes it has been causing us seem to be ingrained in the collective conscious of America right now. I think the McClatchy news website will need to add a separate section just for oil stories the way things are going. Fighting for oil, crying about the price of gas and abject paranoia about speculative plots are just some of the noise we're getting inundated with lately. These things speak to the power of the petrodollar which leads to my attempt at petroblogging.

There Will Be Blood in Congress
Big Oil and steadily increasing gas prices have created all sorts of problems for the average minivan driver. On the legislative and policy side there are multiple "fixes" being thrown into the mix in Congress. The Dems are thinking of a multi-faceted approach that includes a windfall profits tax on oil companies (this makes no sense), capping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking away tax breaks and cracking down on energy market speculation. A windfall by definition is a one-time increase in profits. The profits Exxon and company are seeing are the normal thing now. So why would a windfall profits tax be applicable in today's situation?

The GOP is looking almost exclusively from the supply side with proposals that call for increased drilling (including in ANWR) and refinery building and the normal emphasis on converting resources to cash. The only proposal that will get widespread support is the cap on the strategic reserve. Politico has a really good run down on the various legislative proposals that are presented in a Factcheck.org fashion.

Is the Gas Tax Holiday Dead?
File this one under Panderer in Chief or When Economists Attack. The McCain/Clinton plan to lower gas prices for the summer driving season using voodoo economics has been fading in popularity, and that's not just my impression. Does it have to do with every economist in the world calling it a bad idea? It seems that the McCain advisers that hatched the plan ignored the cold hard facts of tax incidence theory and went straight for the lame gimmickry of the appeal of a tax holiday. Hillary of course glommed on to the gas tax holiday looking for anyway to get an edge on Obama. Now that she is all but cooked in the race for the nomination, her support of a holiday from gasoline reality doesn't mean much. Enough rational introspection from the media and even average citizens has appeared to relegate this one to the silly season column.

Bush Off to Visit His Saudi Overlords
While we are left to guess what the price at the Circle K station will hit tomorrow the Prez heads off to the Middle East to survey the damage of seven years of failed foreign policy. Every Bush or Cheney Mid East trip of course ends with the requisite stop in Saudi Arabia to engage in royal ass kissing. maybe this trip will be different. It would be nice to see someone going to bat for us and maybe ask the Saudis to increase oil production. Is it possible that W. will threaten to pull out of Iraq and let the crazy Iranians increase their influence even more? Will King Abdullah be scared shitless about growing Shia influence in the region stirring up unrest amongst the population of Shias that inhabit the oil rich eastern part of his kingdom? Maybe the King will choose to hold hands with W. and buy his allegiance with another shiny sword.

It's Not a Bubble
Professor Krugman takes the speculation on speculation to task in yesterday's NYT column. The theory that energy speculators are behind the rapid increase in oil and gas prices has taken hold recently and for good reason. The guys making all of the money on the oil boon are the ones closely connected to the markets and traders that seemingly create the frenzy that is pushing up the price of oil. Krugman refutes this notion with sound economic reasoning. His contention is that speculation requires hoarding of supply to be effective and currently the supplies of oil are at normal or below average levels. Sorry, the oil companies are easy to hate but our dilemma is driven by good ol' supply and demand principles. If we could only get that Iraq occupation thing to work maybe the price would go down.

We're Americans and we ain't drivin' 55 or taking the damn bus to work.

SCO Will Rule on Residency Law

I'm a few days behind on this one but I couldn't pass up on the post. The Ohio Supreme Court will weigh in on municipal residency requirements by ruling on the state law that was created to prohibit them. The court will review two of the past cases one of which the city of Akron's case. From Wednesday's GONGWER report:

City Residency: Separately, the court unanimously agreed to decide the constitutionality of a state law that prohibits municipalities from requiring any of their workers, as a condition of employment, to reside within city limits.

Justices accepted appeals involving the cities of Lima and Akron, and said they would hear oral arguments in both cases on the same day. At the same time, the court rejected Akron's motion to consolidate its case with the one from Lima.

The 3^rd District Court of Appeals struck down the state residency law (SB82, 126^th General Assembly) in a December 2007 case involving Lima.

Earlier this year, the 9^th District followed suit in a decision that also lets cities continue to impose residency requirements on employees. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, February 26, 2008).

Last month, the 6^th District became the third appeals court to rule that municipalities may require their police, fire and other employees to reside within city limits, notwithstanding the new state lawto the contrary.

The 6^th District panel said in a 2-1 opinion that the state law prohibiting residency requirements was "an obvious attempt to circumvent constitutional municipal home rule authority."

I don't have a sense how the court leans when it comes to that thingy in the state constitution called home rule. I do have a notion that they are somwhat supportive of police and fire union interests. I know residency laws have held up in the previous court rulings but past performance is no indicator of future earnings when it comes to Ohio's top court.

Demon Inflation

One thing the Pizza Riots of 2008 made clear is that times are tough. Crowds standing in line for hours for a 23 cent pizza demonstrates the squeeze rising food prices are having on ordinary people. It may also be that they are just suckers for a promotion.

Anyway the crunch at the grocery store and the gas pump and elsewhere is indicative of the strains inflation is placing on middle and working class folks. There seems to be a disconnect though between the pinch consumers are feeling and the haughty economic indicators that are released periodically. Despite the constant talk of recession and stimulus plans inflationary stress as divined from CPI and GDP doesn't appear to be echoing the hard facts we see on the ground. It has always seemed out of place that food and fuel prices are excluded from CPI when we are paying record prices at the pump and at the grocery store. The official definition of a recession has been described as two consecutive quarterly drops in GDP but that indicator actually increased by 0.6% at last release. So what is really going on?

The numbers are all based on lies is one answer being offered up. According to Kevin Phillips in an article published in this month's Harper's the CPI and other mainstream economic indicators are a numbers racket. In his piece titled Why the Economy Is Worse Than We Know Phillips puts forth a convincing case for what he terms the "Opacity" crisis in America. Basically over the past two decades the goal posts have been moved to make these key indicators more palatable for investors in the U.S dollar. The actual numbers if based on prior methods would look much more grim today:

The real numbers, to most economically minded Americans, would be a face full of cold water. Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today's U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9 percent and 12 percent; the inflation rate is as high as 7 or even 10 percent; economic growth since the recession of 2001 has been mediocre, despite a huge surge in the wealth and incomes of the superrich, and we are falling back into recession.

There hasn' t been a lot scary talk on inflation because it's kind of been swept under the rug. To the average person it's much more pervasive than the rigged numbers we keep seeing each month. The article is meant to serve as primer to his latest book, Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism. The title sounds kind of gloomy but I think it will be worth the read. The notion that our economic system and method of wealth creation is built on a house of cards is more apparent now than it has been in years.

Lest You Think I'm That Popular

My Site Meter reporting has shown a spike in views the past week. If one were to see this activity they may be lead to believe that the 260 views of BCR today were a sign of interest in what I have to write. Not Really.

What this blog is experiencing is like something out of a chapter of the Long Tail or The Wisdom of Crowds. Give people all the content that's out there and a good filter (Google) to find it and then look out.

Here's the story. I ran a post back in January titled "Where's My Stimulus Check" that outlined the progress of the economic stimulus plan as it wound its way through Congress. The title was a harmless poke at the impatience of the average citizen waiting around for the gov'ment to send out their damn check. Fast forward to last week when the actual checks started going out and now you see what's on peoples' minds - money. The links to BCR through Google searches are driving the links to the blog. Basically all those searches using the same phrase as the post title get referred to this humble little blog. I unintentionally Google bombed myself. I'm willing to rent out space in the side bar to those of you looking for exposure.

Marc Danngate: Crisis or Opportunity?

Ahhh nothing gets the attention of voters like a sex scandal. It looks like State AG Marc Dann has delivered one that comes with all of the requisite details that are needed to titillate (pun intended) those of us who are paying attention. The story of an elected official who likes to crusade against the machine during the day and party with his staff at night was a sure winner.

I gathered that Dann has always had detractors on both sides of the political isle and the steady stream of condemnations has shown that to be the case. They even penned this very important letter asking him to resign before he upsets the delicate balance the Dems have managed to maintain in statewide offices. I don't think anyone has defended the guy in the least but what would you expect from a state full of puritan wannabes. No, I'm not excusing his actions and yes I do think he has damaged the office of Attorney General and should step down. I think it should be done soon and a plan such as the one mentioned by Pho on Friday has legs. The sooner Dann is out and a new electable name is in all the better to salvage the office. It's the political equivalent of calling in the Wolf. The faster we put this behind us the faster we can stop giving sanctimonious republicans like the red gobbler-necked Bob Bennet a soap box to stand on.

One more thing I should mention. Marc Dann has garnered the moniker the "accidental AG" because he was a long shot to win the race against a better known opponent. That person was Betty Montgomery a one-time AG herself and State Auditor at the time of the election. Remember that Dann used her connection with Tom Noe to cast her in negative light and ride that negative tide against the Taft adminstration into office. This was the same Betty Montgomery that was the chief fiscal officer of the State and yet claimed to have no knowledge of an impending financial scandal of epic proportions at the Bureau of Worker's Comp. So maybe Dann winning the 2006 election wasn't all accident for some discerning voters. Let's make this right and deny the republican party an accidental way back into the AG's office.

Residency Requirements Off Life Support For Now

Local residency requirements have officially been upgraded from critical to guarded condition.  As I posted here in February the reports of the death of local ordinances requiring municipal employees to live within city limits was a bit premature.  Now a third Ohio appellate court has weighed in on residency requirements and affirmed the two previous rulings in favor of cities with such requirements.  Not only is the health of residency requirements looking up for now but his friend home rule is feeling better these days.  The report from GONGWER offers this snippet:

The 6th District Court of Appeals said in a 2-1 opinion that a new state statute prohibiting such residency requirements was "an obvious attempt to circumvent constitutional municipal home rule authority."

The main opposition to residency requirements has come from police and fire unions who state that an undue hardship is placed upon their members.  These groups assert the residency restriction limits the options of housing and other quality of life choices that inevitably lie in the greener grass just on the other side of the city limits.   Now I have worked for a large metro that had a residency requirement and didn't mind it at all.  In fact I was informed of the requirement prior to excepting the job there.  Are the safety forces contending that there has been some deception on the part of muni's that maintain residency rules?    In writing the lead opinion Judge Thomas Osowik offered this somewhat right wing-ish statement:

"Terms and conditions of employment and the choice of whether to accept employment with certain terms and conditions are inherent in all employment decisions in a free market economy,"

Seriously, is it that bad to have to live in a city whose citizens depend on police, fire and EMS personnel to maintain the collective health and safety of the community?   If you prefer not to live in Akron or Cleveland y then you have the right to work for a city that doesn't have a residency requirement don't you?   There are currently two potential cases, including the City of Akron case, that could be heard by the SCO so the final judgement has yet to be rendered.

Akron METRO Sales Tax Follow Up

Akron METRO was able to get a quarter percent sales tax increase passed in March. All that is left for the regional transit authority is sit back and watch the money roll in. The tax will provide METRO with approximately $18 million in additional revenue and that may be about $17 million more than METRO currently needs to stay afloat.

Since sales tax is also a meat and potatoes revenue source for county government the movement of such a large chunk to METRO is making some of the financial types at Summit County uneasy. Tough times over the horizon makes for creative solutions to manage fiscal hardship. That is why Summit County will be suggesting that the new found wealth be shared. In what may be called de facto regionalism the County is going to be aggressively searching for ways to have METRO to invest that extra revenue into economic development projects that could perhaps benefit the region and spare county coffers. This is of course all contingent on being able to pry the cash from METROs cold dead hand.

If the county is successful maybe they can set their sites on freeing up some of those tax dollars from MRDD and the Summit ADMH boards.

A Plus Up for Petraeus

General Petraeus always the loyal soldier will be taking over Central Command later this year. With General Ray Odierno moving up from number two take the reigns in Iraq the "smash brothers" will have complete control of the Middle East Theater. Obviously the appointments signal the administration's intent to change absolutely nothing in Iraq but, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

In terms of U.S policy toward Iran this can only mean a greater chance of some military intervention in the near term. It has been said in some media outlets that the current CentCom chief Admiral Fallon was standing in the way of escalating the conflict with Iran. With Fallon out of the picture and the potential for a President McCain (I cringe) to be in charge in early 2009 the outlook for more war looks great.

As for Iraq, country is is great hands. With Odierno in charge the number of cordon and search missions will probably hit all time highs. This guy has a history of being a relentless hard-ass and at times his tactics haven't meshed the counterinsurgency plans. This From yesterday's McClatchy report:

Many believe that Odierno, the III Corps commander in Fort Hood,
Texas, redeemed himself during his stint as the No. 2 commander in Iraq
last year. He came to the post under a cloud of controversy after some
charged that his strong-arm approach to warfare lacked the nuance that
counterinsurgency required.

Indeed, in his previous post as the
commander of U.S. troops in northern Iraq, he called for aggressive
tactics against the insurgency, at times inflaming tensions between
U.S. troops and Iraqis.

Petraeus will most likely be too busy running for vice president to play good cop to Odierno. Eventually in Iraq the money and guns won't be enough to keep the Sunni militias in line and Odierno will have to resort to more bad cop policies to pacify any unrest. All the more reason taking on Iran at the same time is not a good idea.

Dimora's Ameritrust Anxiety Comes Out

Cuyahoga County Commissioner Jimmy Dimora's outburst (no,rant) at Thursday's BOCC meeting was actually a primal release of pent up anxiety. The two PD reporters, Mark Puente and Henry J. Gomez, that had been "hounding" the Commish about what was basically a patronage hire got more than they bargained for. You see Dimora himself said he's been in the business thirty years. The man has seen his share of patronage hires that have failed the smell test. A seasoned politico like Dimora doesn't get his giant panties in a bunch over questions on a single patronage hire.

What the Commissioner is actually suffering from is Ameritrust Building Anxiety. The press didn't do much with this story until last year, almost two years after its inception. The flood gates finally opened and the backlash against the mishandling of the project and questionable contracting has been mounting ever since. Even though the Board has come to terms to sell the building and get out of the project it is not doing so unscathed. The County and taxpayers will still have to eat several million (like around 10) asbestos laden dollars after the building is unloaded to a private developer. Even when they find a way out their problems don't go away.

The County faced with an aging portfolio of buildings still has to come up with a plan to either consolidate into one site or address the large capital costs of maintaining the existing sites. The last three years have essentially been wasted with the failed attempt to make the Ameritrust site work out as planned. The County is now back to square one and has already burned a lot of time, money and good will with nothing to show.

Is Joe Lieberman a Maoist?

Obama is not a Marxist. I couldn't say if Joe is or isn't a Maoist. It's certainly something that could be looked into further. I mean Marxism and Maoism are equally prevalent in today's society aren't they?

Joe's good friend John McCain is certainly not a Marxist. He just proposed relinquishing even more fiscal responsibility through more tax cuts. This time its the federal gasoline tax that is holding us back. How about we triple the gas tax and use the money to pay for your pet project in Iraq?

Proxy War Not Going Well Either

The regular war in Iraq is bad enough now we have to worry about some proxy war. According to the administration, specifically Ambassador Ryan Crocker the U.S is also engaged in proxy war with Iran. In an interview Friday Crocker lamented Iran's role in screwing up the path to a stable Iraq and meddling in Iraqi affairs. The problems in Iraq apparently aren't all related to the U.S. occupation. Iran's support of Shiite militias is a major point of contention for the U.S. As reported in the Sunday New York Times Crocker directly called out the Iranian interference in the interview:

While Bush administration officials have long denounced what they have
described as Iran’s meddling in Iraq, Mr. Crocker’s language was
unusually strong, reflecting fresh concern about what he described in
Congressional testimony this week as Iran’s role in supplying militias
with training and weapons, including rockets used in recent attacks on
the Green Zone, in Baghdad.

Although he claimed the U.S. is not engaging in an proxy type involvement against Iran. That seems to contradict the piles of cash and weapons we have been providing the Sunni groups in Al Anbar. Those groups would be a hedge against overt Iranian and Shiite influence in Iraq once th U.S. begins to decrease it's presence there. So this would serve as a proxy to Iran's proxy, I guess. While Iran is meddling in everyones business in the Middle East none of our allies inte region are lending much of hand, Crocker's complaints again from the Times article:

During the interview, Mr. Crocker accused Iran of meddling in
Afghanistan, Lebanon and Gaza, in addition to Iraq. He also faulted
Iraq’s Arab neighbors for refusing to help, noting that a promised
Saudi Arabian Embassy had yet to materialize.

Maybe the U.S. should consider engaging Iran in a proxy nature and get our so called Sunni allies like Saudi Arabia to get of there asses and spend some petrodollars on staunching Iran's influence in their own backyard. Doing nothing to even the score while the oil producing fat cats sit around and watch is no way to run a proxy war.

Tommy Franks Was Right

Another one of the architects of the Iraq invasion has been making the rounds with the latest book full of excuses. Straight from the "where are the war architects" file comes Douglas Feith. If you know the narrative of how we got into the biggest foreign policy mess ever then Feith's name is a familiar one. He was most recently on the Diane Rehm Show this past Thursday. I've been trying not to hear any of the lame-ass garbage Feith has been pawning off to respected media outlets like 60 minutes but I gave in and listened to the whole one hour segment.

Surprisingly or maybe not Feith has been pushing the idea that the real blame for what went wrong lies with Colin Powell. What I gathered from the interview is that He thinks Powell should have done more to stop the civilian war planners from going ahead with the invasion. To further his point Feith basically stated to Rehm during the interview that if then Secretary of State Powell had a better plan he didn't let on. I come away with this summary. Rumsfeld, Feith, Wolofwitz and the other neocons used bizarro world logic to set off an ill-conceived and ill-planned invasion of Iraq. Colin Powell is to blame because it was up to him to stop them because they didn't know any better. There is a mountain of evidence out there that says they wouldn't have listened anyway.

Feith asserts that his account is based on the record and that's what gives his book real juice. Feith also boasts that the planning was a collaborative effort in which all points of view were entertained. You don't have to go any further than the pages of the book Fiasco by Tom Ricks to see how Feith's "on the record" account contrasts starkly with what actually happened. In the chapter of Fiasco titled "The Run Up", Ricks covers how the lack of attention to objective input from other sources soured the war planning. There were two very large scale and comprehensive reports created by dozens of security experts, military planners and Mideast scholars. Both of these studies where ignored by Feith's office. Ricks summarizes this phenomenon in his book:

"What is remarkable is that again and again during the crucial months before the invasion, such warnings from experts went unheeded-or even unwelcome. Almost no Middle Eastern experts inside the military were consulted on the war plan, in part because the plan was produced on a very close hold basis that involved few people , and even then only parts of it were shown to most of those involved."

Despite the non-attentiveness to the counsel of all of these experts Feith still defends one of the
biggest blunders of the occupation, disbanding the Iraqi army. He claims in his "on the record" version of events that military planners agreed with this decision. The historic facts recounted in Fiasco point to military experts stressing that the Iraqi army not be disbanded. In December of 2002 a report produced by military experts at the Pentagon (a third report in as many months) stated unequivocally the error of folding the Iraqi army after the invasion:

"...To tear apart the army in the war's aftermath could lead to the
destruction of one the only forces of unity within the society."

Feith's claim that the Iraqi army was already broken and had to be rebuilt clearly contradicted the advice being given at the time of the run upto the war. This is just one major example of the incompetent way Feith's office handled the planning and execution of the invasion and
subsequent occupation of Iraq. In the end it was the incompetence from key war planners like Feith that lead to the abysmal failures that have morphed into the never ending disaster that is the occupation of Iraq. General Tommy Franks is quoted in Fiasco as summing up Feith's level of competence with this morsel, "the dumbest fucking guy on the planet". I don't know if I'd go that far but he has a point.

Feith's book smells like pure revisionist crap if you ask me. The only good that may come out of his new book is that he plans to donate all the proceeds to charity. I think a charity that supports the families of fallen Iraq war veterans would be a good start.

Praying For Rain In Northern France

What's better than bikes racing on ancient sections of cobblestone roads in the Ardenne? Bikes racing on wet and muddy sections of cobblestone roads. Paris Roubaix also known as the "Hell of the North" is this Sunday and the riders are expected to be met with rains and wind. This a good thing if you are watching the race and not riding in it. The past few years the peleton has been spared from the brutal wet and cold conditions that normally claim tires, forks, handlebars and the occasional face. I think this could be big George Hincapie's year if he can stay upright, this may be his last chance to claim a victory here.

The Petraeus Take Away

We're not going anywhere anytime soon. General Petraeus made that abundantly clear with this automated response at today's hearing as transcribed by the Washintgon Post:

At the end of that period, he said, he has recommended starting "a
process of assessment to examine the conditions on the ground and, over
time, determine when we can make recommendations for further
reductions." He strongly counseled against setting any deadlines for
withdrawal.

I called Central Command Headquarters and they have this message playing on the answering machine so they got the memo. Maybe we'll know more in December.

Petraeus is Coming! Petraeus is Coming!

Another six months and another status report from the king of the surge. General Petraeus makes his way to Capital Hill tomorrow to give his latest assessment of the conditions in Iraq. I can't imagine anything new is going to be divulged by either the general or U.S. ambassador to the fortified Green Zone, Ryan Crocker.

General Petraeus has already gone on record as saying not enough political progress has been made by the Iraqi government. I almost wanted to throw in the adjective nascent before the words Iraqi government but by now the new car smell has worn off. That statement made a couple of weeks ago will probably be fodder for inquiring minds at the Congressional hearing and should elicit some tough questioning. I'm sure Petraeus and Crocker will be ready for the onslaught and will repel any suggestions that all is not well with healthy doses of "surge must be given more time to work" medicine. American's will once again be told that we need to stay in Iraq even if it means sacrificing more lives and resources for a failed policy.

The real success of surge has been its ability to buy more time on the political front for the administration. Tomorrow's performances are intended to extend the deployment beyond the election and pass it off to the next commander in chief. I know it's a cynical outlook but god dammit can you blame me?

Job Losses Bad News For NEO

The latest round of bad economic news arrived this week in the form of more job losses. If that isn't enough to bum you out then the impact of the downturn in NE Ohio will. George Zeller from the Center for Community Solutions spells out out the impending hard times for NEO in his latest information release:

In Ohio, our year over year job growth has been a loss for the last
12 consecutive months. It is likely that we will see the same in the
March 2008 figures when we get them on April 18.

Of course, we have no evidence at all that Ohio or Cuyahoga County
ever recovered at all from the 2000s recession. Thus, the new federal
figures today for the whole country are not a good sign for us
locally. We have now gone more than one quarter with job losses in
the USA. In another two months, unless job growth resumes, we will
have two quarters of national job losses. Even then, until the
Conference Board sees two negative quarters of GDP, they probably
will not declare an official recession. But, there is obvious
significant weakness in the national economy right now, and that is
very likely to spill over into our local situation.

Therefore, despite a lack of a local component in today's new
figures, the national employment figures are discouraging for us in
Ohio and in Cuyahoga County.

Zeller has had the unfortunate role of chronicling our economic woes. As he mentions we are already vulnerable due to the lack of a true recovery from the previous recession. The take away here is that the ebb and flow of the Dow Jones Index and Fed bailouts are only a small portion of the economic picture. These latest indicators point to adeep and troubling times for NE Ohioans.

The Lessons of Basra

The dust is finally starting to settle in Basra after last week's ill fated offensive by the Iraqi government and their U.S. handlers. The amount of devastation and carnage resulting from the uprising or whatever that was is a harsh reality check on the state of our deployment in Iraq. As usual McClatchy has been on point with its coverage of the situation on the ground. The plan to de-surge or stand down (because they have to stand up) has hit a new snag.

As part of its post-surge plan, the Pentagon planned to reduce troop levels by one brigade a month, thin out its presence in Iraq and lean more heavily on Iraqi forces. But the Basra offensive has some in the U.S. military fretting that Iraq's forces, while better than they were six months ago, cannot fully defend their communities.

An unintended consequence of the surge has been the reliance on bottom up self governance to claim reconciliation has been occurring. As an example the Sunni awakening and relative calmness in the Kurdish north has been sited by surge fans as proof of its success. Not too quick. What has been visited upon Iraqis this week in the form of a proto-civil war is this lesson: correlation is not causation. Didn't the event of the past week demonstrate that the cease fire issued by Sadr was the real reason behind the success of the surge? The Maliki offensive turned into a clash between central governance (the original plan) and local power centers like militias. The top down approach didn't fair too well.

Relying on local players to maintain stability gave the surge an appearance of success. The problem is that this stability was proven to be a mirage once the interests of Sadrists no longer lined up with the central government. When the decision was made to break that calm, whoever is to blame is almost irrelevant, the stability evaporated and fighting erupted. When the Iraqi forces were not enough to quell the Shia fighters the U.S. forces had no choice but to "Fallujahize" the city with air strikes and artillery. The after effects of that offensive are turning the residents of the once somewhat allied south into haters. Another piece from McClatchy details the carnage resulting from the air strikes and the collective dismay of Iraqi hearts and minds being lost. It seems that the surge is approaching the end of its shelf life before the stated goals were ever realized.

Flush Your Free Lunch Down the Toilet

Mayor Plusquellic's Sewers for College plan has evolved into a lease of the Akron sewer system rather than sale. After looking at other lease deals on infrastructure around the Country the original plan to sell the system outright has been modified to be a lease deal. Leases comes with the same caveats as sales. The system would almost certainly be leased by a foreign entity and that foreign corporation would have to raise user fees in due time to cover operations. A spokesperson from one firm is quoted in today's ABJ article:

''Generally, it means more efficient operations and lower-cost pricing,
even taking into account profit for dividends and reinvestment into the
system,'' Henning said. ''It also means that customers are paying 'real
cost' pricing, rather than a subsidized price based off the use of
government bonds to finance infrastructure improvements.''

You see public works are actually subsidized because capital improvements are financed with government issued bonds. Oh wait a minute, I thought local governments pay debt service with revenue collected from user fees and taxes. So the subsidy actually flows from citizens that use the infrastrucure. We are subsidizing ourselves, that has to stop.

Call it a lease, a sale, creative financing, it's all the same. Privatization will come with more costs in the form of increased fees. This deal can't create money out of thin air and fund universal college scholarships at the same time.

A Bold Move Towards Regionalism

The City of Akron and Summit County Governments are about to sample the much talked about but seldom visited waters of regionalism. Akron and Summit our planning a trial by fire approach to merging the administration of safety forces. The ABJ explains how the new chain of command will report to County Sheriff Drew Alexander:

Larry Givens, the retired Akron Police Chief, was introduced as Plusquellic's new deputy mayor of public safety. Givens will report to Alexander and the two will now be at the top of Akron police department's chain of command, Plusquellic said.

There are several positive aspects of this prposed arrangement. The first of which is that it sign proactive move in the direction of combining a city and county government in real life. It's not just topic for MPA students to write papers on. Carving out one of the core services for this first phase gives the move some credibility and potential to have a real impact. In theory the plan is supposed to achieve efficiencies and save money without stripping the APD of its autonomy which is important for buy in. It's been two or three years since the Fund for Our Economic Future started pushing for transformational change in our framework of governance and this move may be a result of that proect.

Mayor Plusquellic is also a winner here. He claims a new creative idea to tout to constituents and this one makes sense. Merging government services good, private sewer systems bad.

Crossover Voting Meet Overwhelming Force

The prospects of crossover voting amounting to anything more than a pet project of Rush Limbaugh and his merry band of dittoheads are slim and none. Of course loud mouth righty blowhards get the adulation of an intellectually immature fan base poised to move when called upon. The thought of steering the election to a favorable match up for November is in the same category as the bumper sticker pablum they ingest daily.

There as been a good deal of press on the GOP crossovers in the Ohio primary election and Cuyahoga County in particular. The Columbus Dispatch released an analysis of crossover voting and found a sizable number of GOP superfans crossed over to the tune of over 20,000 voters. The intent of course was to cast votes for Clinton and keep her campaign alive thus throwing the race into turmoil. Of course the democratic race didn't need an help with that and the crossover voting didn't really alter overall course of the election. In politically savvy move SOS Jennifer Brunner has cast aside any ideas of prosecuting crossover voting in an interview with the Cleveland PD:

"I would be very hesitant to move forward in a criminal investigation," Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said before giving a speech at John Carroll University. "At what point are you going to start getting into censorship?"

Basically let the cretins have some fun it can't stop the inevitable defeat the GOP will be suffering in the general election, or so we hope. Still the Cuyahoga BOE is pursuing a investigation of crossovers in the County. This "quixotic effort" as described by County Prosecutor Civil Division chief Dave Lambert, will go nowhere fast once it hits the inevitable party line vote.

I've said it before, winning this election will have to be done using the Powell Doctrine of overwhelming force. The GOP attack dogs are going to use voter suppression, caging and other dirty tricks to sway this election. The appropriate defense to this crap is to bring the full force of progressive ideas and a strong candidate to the electorate. An unstoppable wave of D(d)emocratic voters that will wipe out the effects of any GOP nonsense.

Caging, Voting's Dirty Little Secret

The practice fo voter caging is finally getting some attention from Congress. Politico has an article covering the efforts of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) to introduce legislation limiting the practice. Supporters of the bill claim rightly, that the practice of challenging the addresses of large swathes of registered voters discourages college students and younger voters from voting.

In NE Ohio we have had are share of this tactic. In the case of the 2004 election the GOP cadres submitted mass requests to verify voters addresses in Cuyahoga and Summit County. The requests targeted minority voters in low income neighborhoods not college students. This was a perfectly devious compliment to the voter challenges at the polls that also targeted this demographic. Nothing like the white mayor of rich Westlake challenging black voters in poor East Cleveland.

Limiting the practice at the federal level makes sense. They already have something called the Voting Rights Act I think. Still you will always have some critics of measures that encourage people to vote. In a wonderful coincidence one of the potential critics on the Senate Judiciary Comm. is Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT). A different man but same name as beloved Ohio GOP Chairman Bob Bennett who coordinated the voter suppression efforts in 2004.

Five Years of Lies

"When you tell a lie, you steal someone's right to the truth."

Khaled Hosseini
The Kite Runner


The war in Iraq was built on lies and false bravado. From the tales of errant WMD to the not so subtle conflating of Saddam and the terror of September 11th. The mission accomplished moments, last throes, fight them there and surge is working chicanery have had five years to obscure the truth of what has happened in Iraq. Any meaningful debate on Iraq policy must be navigated around the detritus of talking points and bumper sticker schlock. Almost every pronouncement from the administration on progress must be interpreted with either skepticism or outright disbelief. Awakening counsels are really the result of bribing one side of a future civil war. The the reconstruction of a country into an economic success has morphed into a failed free market laboratory. The spread of democracy in the Middle East has been revealed as an entreaty to ethnic cleansing, torture and has created a new class of diaspora left to flee the calamity as means of survival.

The lies that this war are built on have damned this country, its leaders, and its citizens to an endless feedback loop of suffering and human wreckage. The American attention span for the never ending and costly occupation of Iraq has continued to shrink. The lack of thirst for information or demand for the truth and accountability are acts of complicity in creating the lies that have sustained this war.

Now the next champion of this misadventure has grabbed the baton and kept marching forward with the same talking points and disrespect for the truth. John McCain is already finding convenient ways to falsely conflate Al Queda and Iran and then retracts the words as alleged gaffes. He is proudly proclaiming that we only have two options, continue on this reckless path or surrender to the forces of evil. Never mind the folly that led us to war in Iraq is the reason for the instability. There is no gray or in between even though the complexity of the mess we have created can't be mitigated with absolutes. Our right to the truth was stolen long ago. Until we get it back this trip through the hellish confines of this period our history will never end.

The Cost of Floyd

The former winner fo the 2006 Tour De France has one more fight left in him and he's not letting money get in the way. Floyd Landis makes one last ditch effort to save his bad reputation starting today. Not taking the decision by USADA to uphold his positive doping test seriously Landis now goes to the Court of Arbitration of Sport. This time around promises to be another rehash of the previous findings. Floyd's people will again plead why the test administered to Floyd after an unprecedented comeback in stage 16 of the 2006 TDF must have been wrong. Floyd will rant like a paranoid delusional about the French lab that bothcedhis test and the dark secrets of Greg Lemond's childhood.

None of the time and money spent presenting an alternative to what actually happened will change the outcome. UCI cycling is already hurting from more doping scandals like Puerta and last year's tour. This latest round in the Floyd chronicles is just one more reminder of the hubis tearing down a great sport.