Friday, April 25, 2008

A Plus Up for Petraeus

General Petraeus always the loyal soldier will be taking over Central Command later this year. With General Ray Odierno moving up from number two take the reigns in Iraq the "smash brothers" will have complete control of the Middle East Theater. Obviously the appointments signal the administration's intent to change absolutely nothing in Iraq but, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

In terms of U.S policy toward Iran this can only mean a greater chance of some military intervention in the near term. It has been said in some media outlets that the current CentCom chief Admiral Fallon was standing in the way of escalating the conflict with Iran. With Fallon out of the picture and the potential for a President McCain (I cringe) to be in charge in early 2009 the outlook for more war looks great.

As for Iraq, country is is great hands. With Odierno in charge the number of cordon and search missions will probably hit all time highs. This guy has a history of being a relentless hard-ass and at times his tactics haven't meshed the counterinsurgency plans. This From yesterday's McClatchy report:

Many believe that Odierno, the III Corps commander in Fort Hood,
Texas, redeemed himself during his stint as the No. 2 commander in Iraq
last year. He came to the post under a cloud of controversy after some
charged that his strong-arm approach to warfare lacked the nuance that
counterinsurgency required.

Indeed, in his previous post as the
commander of U.S. troops in northern Iraq, he called for aggressive
tactics against the insurgency, at times inflaming tensions between
U.S. troops and Iraqis.

Petraeus will most likely be too busy running for vice president to play good cop to Odierno. Eventually in Iraq the money and guns won't be enough to keep the Sunni militias in line and Odierno will have to resort to more bad cop policies to pacify any unrest. All the more reason taking on Iran at the same time is not a good idea.

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