John Bows Out, Rudy Cracks Up

Even though I expected it I was bummed to see John Edwards drop out of the presidential race. His populist message and calls to address poverty were inspiring to some. His message of helping the poor in America was also about changing the economic landscape that has been tilted against the middle class for some time. There was of course wide spread opining as to why this message did not catch fire with primary voters. It makes you wonder if things would have played out differently if states like Ohio had been moved up in the primary schedule.

Just when I was feeling blue I got a slight pick-me-up seeing Rudy throwing in the towel today. His fall from the top of the national polls is one of the intriguing stories of the 2008 election. Apparently the more you learn about him the less you like him. He took the fifty state strategy and turned it into the one state strategy. Not a good idea. The other silver lining is Rudy's endorsement of McCain. That act alone should make right-wing radio nation jittery all over again.

SOTU 2008: The Drinking Game

Firstly let's all tip our glass to the last confounded State of the Union address from the master of grammatical disaster. There's no chance anything will top the “axis of evil” moment so this last foray into the SOTU for W. should go out with a whimper.

Grab a beer and drink every time you here the words tax cuts, terrorists, evil doers, Al Queda, Petraeus, nuclear, social security, stimulus and Iraqi people.

Don't forget about the September 11^th reference over and under which is at two minutes this year. Personally I'm taking the under.

More on The Economic Stimulus Plan That Isn't

Things are starting to shake out with the $150 billion economic package cobbled together by the President and members of Congress late last week. As is usually the case with compromised policy the devil is in the details. My previous post envisioned a potential flow of funds that would result from the economic plan. After reading some critiques of the plan on the web my analysis may need some revising. It looks like the plan may be less conducive to create immediate spending and more on pushing through tax cuts to upper wage earners.

According to Professor Krugman's latest column and his continuous blog updates the plan doesn't get enough in the hands of those who will spend it quickly. He faults the acquiescence of Pelosi and Company in allowing those benefits to be cast aside in the final compromise with President Bush. The resulting plan directs nearly 60% of the benefits to the upper two quintiles of income earners according to the Tax Policy Center. These upper wage earners are more apt to save the rebate dollars and not spend them immediately. With the low end stuff out of the plan the tax-cutter-in-chief can continue boasting about the cure all power of tax cuts that make up the rest of the package. No welfare queens getting rich off of this stimulus plan .

It's too bad the aid to State and local governments was weeded out in the negotiations. With Governor Strickland warning of looming budget deficits and local governments already feeling fiscal strain, an economic boost would be nice. This provision and some of the others may become a point of contention when the economic plan is debated in the U.S Senate. According to a story on Politico numerous Senators of both parties are already jockeying to get things put in the final version. How this will effect the outcome is hard to day. Could we see another GOP filibuster if attempts are made to include aid to local governments and increases in unemployment benefits?

Plan Announced to Stimulate China's Economy

The economy goes sour because of what Chairman Greenspan referred to as “froth in thehousing market”and things get surreal. Suddenly an administration that has embraced Friedmanite market principles has gotten all Keynesian on us. Today's compromise (someone caved) between the the Prez and Democratic leaders in Congress calls for pumping $150 billion of stimulus (that's hot) into the economy. The hope is that this action in the form of tax rebates for average Joes and tax incentives for business will prevent the economy from taking a recessionary nose dive this year.

The good news is that all operations in Iraq will be suspended for one year to pay for the economic bailout. Okay that's actually not the case. Per the Washington Post story the plan would require increased borrowing and will increase the deficit by that $150 billion amount proposed.

Here is the proposed flow of funds from the plan:

1. Government borrows $150 billion from creditors like China.
2. Government spends money on rebates and tax incentives.
3. Businesses use tax incentives to buy equipment to manufacture goods in their Chinese factories.
4. Citizens go to Walmart and spend money on crap made in Chinese factories.
5. Feds pay creditors like China increasing interest on borrowings as value of dollar declines
6. Policy makers in D.C declare important election year victory.

The Prez has already mentioned that often repeated theme of Bushonomics, the miracle of unending tax cuts in his speech today

Importantly, this package recognizes that lowering taxes is a powerful and efficient way to help consumers and businesses. I've always believed that allowing people to keep more of their own money and to use it as they see fit is the best way to help our economy grow.

I'm still waiting for Ron Paul's response to this stuff. For more coverage on the plan check out Paul Krugman's Blog.

Uncle Fred Gets the Job Done

It was no real surprise that Fred Thompson dropped out of the presidential race. He exited the race the same way he entered it, seemingly confused and lacking energy. Maybe he realized that many of us were not convinced he was an admiral on an aircraft carrier.

With McCain's trajectory locked in towards the GOP nomination it was time for Fred to pull the plug. It's no secret Uncle Fred is a friend and ally of McCain, he did endorse him in the 2000 presidential race. I subscribe to the theory that he was only in the race to peel away votes from Rudy to give McCain some breathing room. With McCain gaining momentum it was time for Fred to go. Maybe he'll be on the short list for VP.

If you don't think Team McCain has gained steam just read David Brooks' Column in today's NY Times. He points out that McCain is bucking the GOP establishment (what a maverick) and lassoing a wide range of support from conservative voters. BoBo even thinks the GOP has resurrected its chances of holding onto the White House.

MLK, Some Thoughts on the Dream

A co-worker sent an email to the office last week that asked if we are supporting "the Dream". This was a thought provoking question one that actually made me take pause. This question becomes even more prescient when taken in the context of a presidential election year where so much is perceived to be at stake. What are the candidates themselves doing to move this nation towards social justice, economic equality (in broad terms) and prosperity for everyone? Who (from either party) is misappropriating King's legacy by invoking his name for trivial political gain?

I have more thoughts on what we can do to take up the vision of MLK but for now I would suggest reading his Letter from Birmingham Jail.

Dennisless Debate Format Works Well

The glass top table at last night's Democratic Primary debate was short (get it) one candidate but I doubt he was missed. Despite the legal challenges and pleas from Willie Nelson, Dennis Kucinich was not permitted to participate in last night's debate hosted by MSNBC. I'm not part of the bash Dennis crowd but I have to say the format of this debate would not have suited having an odd man out (and I mean odd) included in the panel. Tim Russert has a hard enough time avoiding the appearance of being disingenuous without having to coddle also ran candidates.

The Democratic race has been distilled down to three serious contenders for now and this forum provided a glimpse of three separate candidates each working to portray an image of presidential preparedness to the viewing audience in cable television land. The debate was more of panel discussion with each candidate permitted to ask the other a question while sitting comfortably at the table. As Daily Kos offers,

Each of our three candidates brings tremendous strengths to the contest. Any of them would be a strong general election candidate, and they all appear to be sufficiently prepared to enter the White House in 370 days.

The Dems have a steady confluence of energy that looks like it will lead to an orderly synthesis of selecting a clear nominee. They need to continue moving in that direction being careful not to backslide towards the Hobbesian state of the GOP race. Sadly that means the end of the line for the bottom tier candidacies. No more standing at podiums and making jokes about the other candidates' political gaffes or debating about the nature of Jesus. As much as I think Dennis has to offer in the marketplace of ideas his presence would have been counter productive (and the chairs didn't go up high enough). Sorry.

Happy Belated Surgeiversary

If Islamo-Fascism is a word then I think surgeiversary deserves its place in the political lexicon. It means a kind of anniversary that makes you unsure about what exactly you are celebrating. Last Thursday marked a year since the announcement by W. of the surge strategy in Iraq. While the increased troop levels have led to security gains, the stated goal of the surge has largely not been achieved. Yes, force protection is nice but the troop increase was supposed to buy the Iraqis some breathing room to make nice and get their political game together. As of yet there has been some movement but the political landscape has not been radically altered like we were told it would once the additional troops arrived. Below that shiny exterior portrayed in nightly news clips of pretty snow flakes in Baghdad is an undisclosed reality that is unchanged since the surge. At this point the whole damn thing has been so obscured that the average person can't figure out what the real story is. It makes sense that Iraq is fading from the minds of Presidential primary voters and being replaced with pocketbook issues.

There are two points of view I present on the surge and its impact on the Iraq conundrum. One is the Op-ed written by the at dynamic bi-partisan duo McCain and Lieberman that appeared in the January 10^th Wall Street Journal. Their piece titled “The Surge Worked” (not working but worked) is a predictable recounting of the Petraeus good and Al Qaeda bad story of how the surge has pulled off a miracle in Iraq. It's worth reading but their argument fails to move much past the military side of the surge equation. The other exhibit is the Tom Rick's (author of Fiasco) appearance on Countdown with Keith Olberman from last week. I find Ricks' analysis of all things Iraq to be the most direct way to get a dependable and objective answer. Ricks' statement ”Judged on terms in which the President presented it the surge has not worked...” gets to the heart of my surgeiversary pondering. Was the trillion dollars really worth it?

Akron Residency Requirement, 9th District Court Delays the Inevitable

The City of Akron residency requirement was spared a premature death by The 9th District Court of Appeals. This is good news for Akron and Cleveland but the last move has not been made yet. The issue will eventually end up being decided by the Ohio Supreme Court. I think we know where this is headed. The last count of who was on the court didn't bode well for big city mayors trying to defend home rule.

The exodus of public safety employees from city limits will not be as bad in Akron as I expect it to be in Clevetown. If you know anyone in the CPD then you've probably heard first hand the complete disdain for residency requirements and the administrations that want to uphold them. Its unfortunate especially since the citizens of Akron have voted twice to reaffirm the desire to have those who police our city also be part of the community by living amongst us. It's funny you never hear of Ford plant employees driving Honda Accords to work.

Cuyahoga Commissioners Get No Breathing Room in 2008

2008 is still in diapers and the Cuyahoga County Commissioners are already facing a slew of potential problems that will make the new year one full of turmoil and challenges for our strategically impaired threesome. Roldo will have plenty to write about this year.

Board of Elections Voting System Overhaul
This one really bites. The commissioners don't have authority to overturn the Brunner decision to scrap touch screen voting nor do they have any real purview on how the BOE proceeds on the primary election. They will however have to commit millions of County dollars (as required by ORC) to pay for a new system and the subsequent implementation. When the implementation is botched (which is an almost certainty) or the election results are not available until 2009 the Commission will take a good portion of the heat for that even though they re not directly responsible. If they try to challenge the Brunner decision in court they will be branded as obstructionists and will end up wasting valuable time on something they have little control stopping. The County also faces a possible legal challenge from the ACLU on the issue of second chance voting and the lack of in relation to the new system.

Medical Mart Delay
So much for super attorney to the stars Fred Nance on getting a site commitment from the Merchandise Mart Properties guys. It sounds like the sharks who run the firm want the Med Mart located near the Cleveland Clinic and the $43 plus million from the sales tax increase. The whole line about the County constructing the exhibition center portion of the project is not what they have in mind. It's more like MMPI will pick the site, take the public funds to build the whole damn thing and the County can scrounge up the dollars to maintain it. Not exactly what we had envisioned. Now commission president Tim Hagan has had to issue an ultimatum that a location must be picked (the one in downtown before Sam Miler dies) in 60 days or we take back the sales tax money. Who will blink here is hard to say. Don't forget the Board stated they would rescind the tax increase if the deal fell through. What happens to all the dollars that were generated before the tax is rescinded?

Administration Building Meltdown
There has been plenty of bad press for the three on this one. What started out as a way to consolidate County employees at one location in the interest of efficient government has turned into a real boondoggle. It goes from County buying a crappy building from a Cleveland godfather for way too much and sitting back and watching the price tag sore while the original goal of savings gets burned away by mission creep. A Hail Mary pass being thrown up is the hope that the building will be snatched up for the right price by a some unsuspecting private developer. All the more reason the Commissioners need the Med Mart sited in downtown.

Myers University Loan Guaranty Extension
The special secret master decider Judge Gaul will settle for nothing less than Myers University remaining open under new ownership. In order for the school's new plan to be viable the half million dollar County loan guaranty (contrary to how it is spelled in the press the word ending with 'tee' is for appliances) . had to be extended. Approving the thing for the first time last year seemed futile and was not a comfortable decision for these guys but it was originally only for one year. Now the promise for monetary aid may never go away and it's only a matter of time before Case comes a knocking for their loan guaranty.

General Economic Malaise
Stagnant General Fund revenue, mounting foreclosures in the County, a withering downtown, banking layoffs, a new Human Services Levy, 3% budget cuts, sinking employee morale...

Happy New Year.

Iowa, the Beginning of the End or Not?

A long holiday reprieve and a bathroom renovation (that's not a euphemism) has kept me away from the blogstead. I didn't feel that motivated to post about too many things anyway. The one thing that I should be weighing in on is the presidential primary race, namely that thing in Iowa tomorrow. Forgive me if I'm not overcome with mass amounts of punditry about the race. Now that it's actually 2008 I will try to pay close attention though. It's not easy when the bulk of the media coverage is more about the horse race and less on the candidates sans the patina of talking points (he got the memo). As the loony GOP reminded us in the onslaught of 2006 political spots, "the stakes are high" and the future of the free world depends on the outcome of this one.

My call for Thursday is Obama pulls off a close one with Johnny Edwards a few points behind. I am hoping and unabashedly admitting that I want Edwards to win the nomination in the end. I like Obama but as Paul Krugman has been pointing out the Barack Star has been borrowing from the right wing bag of talking points at different points of his campaign rhetoric. I'm uneasy about that choice.